The FBI’s decision against prosecuting Clinton for using a private email server while secretary of state has robbed Republicans of the election game-changer they had so desperately craved.
“I don’t think it was complete exoneration but it was probably the best they could have hoped for,” said Jeanne Zaino, political science professor at Iona College in New York.
“They should be counting their lucky stars that things weren’t worse.”
Clinton was questioned by agents over the Independence Day holiday weekend and the FBI announced its findings Tuesday, when many ordinary voters were still on vacation or outside relaxing, not inside glued to the news.
But if Clinton dodged a bullet, her public dressing down from FBI Director James Comey could yet foretell an even tougher war of political attrition all the way to the ballot box in November, analysts warned.
Comey said 110 emails contained classified information — Clinton said there were none whose content was classified at the time they were written — portrayed the politician as “extremely careless” with sensitive information and said her emails could have been hacked: all bad news.
“That will resonate with many people,” said Zaino.
“Is it going to derail her campaign? No. Is it going to have a long-term impact? Probably not.
“The damage is going to be if the Republicans are able to use this to rally the troops and improve turnout and in some way rob the Democrats of some support in the Senate and at the top of the ticket,” she said.
The silver lining for Clinton, analysts agree, is that she is running against a man even more disliked, with even more questionable judgment and representing a party so far unable to unite behind him.
– Lucky it’s Trump –
“They (Republicans) would have to make the case that Hillary Clinton is so dangerous that people who might not otherwise turn out to vote against her would turn out and vote for Donald Trump. That’s not easy to do,” said Zaino.
Trump seized on the findings to brand Clinton a liar and charge that the system was rigged, drawing a much-mocked parallel with disgraced former CIA chief David Petraeus, who pled guilty to mishandling classified information.
The Republican billionaire, who has never held public office, languishes nearly five percentage points behind Clinton in a poll average produced by Real Clear Politics.
“She’s very lucky she’s in a race with a man with higher negatives,” political analyst Stuart Rothenberg told AFP. “She’s bad, he’s worse.”
Ever since the email scandal emerged last year, critics have interpreted it as further evidence of her being dishonest, while supporters insist she did nothing illegal and was subject to a Republican witch hunt.
“It doesn’t really change the race too much,” Rothenberg said.
“Unless she was indicted, unless there was a Justice Department that believed she engaged in criminal behavior, really all the damage has already been done.”
Were she up against a Republican like charismatic House speaker Paul Ryan, unflappable moderate John Kasich or even Mitt Romney, who twice failed to beat Barack Obama, the fallout might be worse, experts say.
The Clinton campaign quickly issued a statement saying it was “pleased” the matter was closed and Clinton spent Tuesday afternoon dressed in hot pink and beaming on stage in a gleefully awaited first campaign appearance with Obama.
Neither mentioned the FBI and the president offered a ringing endorsement of his former rival, saying no man or woman had ever been more qualified.
Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, conceded that Comey’s “pretty tough language” would raise further questions about her judgment, but doubted it would prove decisive.
“It might help Trump a little bit. If you don’t like him, you still don’t like her more — if you’re a Republican,” Zelizer said.
“My guess is, the report overall still helps her and solidifies the support she still has, even though it’s critical and again she benefits from the fact that Trump is her opponent and there are so many questions about his judgment.”