PTI, PML-N, PPP largely retained cumulative vote banks in 2024 polls: FAFEN

ISLAMABAD: Major political parties largely retained their cumulative and individual vote banks across both national and provincial assemblies in Elections 2024, ARY News report quoting FAFEN.

The Free and Fair Election Network’s (FAFEN) latest report titled “GE-2024 National and Provincial Elections: Votes Polled and Party Shares in Votes and Seats”, provides an analysis of political parties’ shares in the popular vote and their corresponding seats in the National and Provincial Assemblies.

During GE-2024, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) collectively secured 68 percent of the vote share for the National Assembly and 62 percent for the four Provincial Assemblies. By comparison, these parties had received 69 percent and 61 percent vote shares, respectively, in GE-2018, and 65 percent and 58 percent in GE-2013.

The report highlights that the number of votes polled for National Assembly constituencies was marginally higher than those polled for Provincial Assemblies. A partial reason for the difference was the postponement of elections in one national (NA-8 Bajaur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and three provincial constituencies (PK-22 Bajaur-IV and PK-91 Kohat-II in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and PP-266 Rahimyar Khan-XII in Punjab).

FAFEN’s analysis reveals that none of the leading parties secured an absolute majority in their respective strongholds, even where they have formed governments following the general elections. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI garnered 45 percent of the vote in National Assembly contests, with the remaining 55 percent split among other parties. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (JUIP) received 16 percent, PML-N secured 10 percent, Awami National Party (ANP) and independents each secured seven percent, and other parties collectively accounted for 15 percent.

A closely contested race unfolded between PTI and PML-N in ICT and Punjab. In ICT, PTI secured 33 percent of the vote, narrowly surpassing PML-N’s 31 percent, while independents captured 20 percent. Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) received five percent, PPPP four percent, and other parties collectively accounted for seven percent. In Punjab, PTI led with 35 percent of the National Assembly vote, narrowly edging out PML-N, which garnered 34 percent. TLP followed with seven percent, PPPP with six percent, independents with 14 percent, and other parties with five percent.

In Sindh, PPPP secured 46 percent of the national vote, followed by the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) with 12 percent, PTI and independents each garnered nine percent, Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQMP) secured eight percent, and other smaller parties collectively accounted for 16 percent. Balochistan exhibited the most fragmented voting pattern, with regional parties and independents securing 35 percent and 16 percent of the national vote respectively. JUIP secured 16 percent, PML-N 14 percent, PPPP 10 percent, and PTI seven percent.

The report highlights that the three leading parties – PTI, PML-N, and PPPP – earned much higher seat shares in comparison to their vote shares. Overall, PTI secured 34 percent of the National and Provincial Assembly seats for an overall vote share of 28 percent for all assemblies. PML-N captured 27 percent of the seats with 23 percent of the vote, while PPPP won 19 percent of the seats with just 14 percent of the vote share.

In contrast, smaller parties struggled to convert votes into seats. For instance, TLP, which secured five percent of the total votes, won only 0.1 percent of the seats, and JUIP secured four percent of the vote but only three percent of the seats.

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