Bangladesh: One-woman democracy

In the uncertain atmosphere of power politics in South Asia, the hold on power of Sheikh Hasina as PM of Bangladesh for an almost unbelievable period of 15 period stands out as a rarity.

It represented an epic power struggle known as the game of thrones between Begums with Sheikh Hasina claiming legitimacy from her late father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman known as the founder of Bangladesh who was brutally assassinated in 1975 along with most his family members while serving as PM of Bangladesh by a rogue element of the country’s military. Sheikh Hasina and her sister were spared this tragic fate as they were outside the country when this gruesome tragedy occurred.

The other Begum Khalida Zia, widow of the country’s military chief and subsequent president Ziaur Rehman who was assassinated in a military coup has contested Sheikh Hasina’s claim of political leadership. Both have taken over the mantle of the political parties formed by their father and husband respectively and have taken turns at being the prime minister of the country through electoral process.

Their terms in office however were intermittently disrupted by military interventions till Sheikh Hasina got an opportunity to govern without hindrance from military. It was noted however that after winning a competitive election held under a neutral caretaker government in 2009, Sheikh Hasina set out to turn Bangladesh into a one-party state as she changed the Constitution to make illegal the practice of holding elections under neutral administration and won two additional terms — in 2014 and 2018 — in votes marked by opposition boycotts and irregularities.

In the absence of virtually any opposition with the main opposition party of Begum Khalida Zia, Bangladesh National Party (BNP), Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) had a free hand as was borne out by the fact that it won almost 75 percent of seats in the national legislature. Bangladeshis largely stayed away from the election, which was marred by violence. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which participated in the 2018 vote stayed away from the polls after Sheikh Hasina refused its demands to resign and allow a neutral authority to conduct the general election. Sheikh Hasina was defiant in reacting to the boycott of the BNP by labelling it a terrorist party insisting that each political party has right to take decision, absence of one party in election does not mean democracy is absent.

It is also pointed out that part of the problem exists within the ruling Awami League party as with power so centralized by Sheikh Hasina and so much economic and political fortune at stake in a ticket to Parliament, the result has been bitter interparty fights in many of the constituencies, including violent clashes. In at least two constituencies, Awami League candidates have pointed fingers at opponents from their own party for deaths of their supporters.

The chief election commissioner pointed out that that the voter turnout was about 43 percent compared with over 80 percent in the last election in 2018 but many observers disputed this figure and mentioned that the turnout was as low as 29 percent. The ruling Awami League won 222 seats out of 298, according to unofficial results released by the Election Commission. Sheikh Hasina herself won 249,962 votes from her constituency Gopalganj, about 165 km south of Dhaka, while her nearest rival secured just 469 votes.

Sheikh Hasina, 76, first became prime minister in 1996 and this will be her fifth term in office, a record of sorts. During her 15 years stint in office he is widely credited with turning around the economy and the massive garments industry, while winning international praise for sheltering Rohingya Muslims fleeing persecution in neighbouring Myanmar. On the back of investments in the garment industry, Bangladesh experienced such impressive growth that average income levels, at one point, surpassed India’s.

At one time under her watch Bangladesh presented a contrasting picture as once one of the world’s poorest, it achieved credible economic success under her leadership since 2009. It was accordingly rated during this period as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region with per capita income getting tripled in a decade and the World Bank estimating that more than 25 million people have been lifted out of poverty in the last 20 years. Using the country’s own funds, loans and development assistance, Shaikh Hasina’s government undertook huge infrastructure projects, including the flagship $2.9 billion Padma bridge across the Ganges. The bridge alone was expected to increase GDP by 1.23 percent. Bangladesh is rated to be the world’s second-largest garment exporter after China as it shipped more than $45 billion worth of ready-to-wear garments, mostly to Europe and the US. The country also saw major improvements in education, health, female participation in the labour force and preparedness against climate disasters.  She has also played a difficult balancing act in a tough neighbourhood, where both China and India are vying for influence. Sheikh Hasina also managed to keep India and China on her side.

It is however pointed out that that the economic success came at the cost of democracy and human rights as Shaikh Hasina’s rule gradually became more autocratic and oppressive. Her government increasingly took repressive authoritarian measures against her political opponents, detractors and the media. Protesting people were brutally beaten by the security forces and cases were registered against them and their families with some cases of their properties getting confiscated also coming to light.  In August more than 170 global figures including former US president Barack Obama, Virgin Group founder Richard Branson and U2 lead singer Bono, wrote an open letter to Sheikh Hasina urging her to stop the continuous judicial harassment of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus but she was unmoved.

The other difficulties faced by the country are the after effects of the successive blows of the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have pushed up fuel and food prices exposing Bangladesh’s overreliance on one industry. The country’s foreign reserves have been shrinking, forcing it to seek emergency loan of $4.7 billion from the International Monetary Fund. The inflation is climbing by the by the day as the government is fast losing control.

As Western pressures increased on her government over human rights abuses, including the crackdown on opposition and the enforced disappearances by Bangladesh’s elite security agencies, both Beijing and New Delhi have come to her defence. India, in particular, has been using its growing diplomatic weight to urge the United States and other Western nations to take it easy on Sheikh Hasina. However, as the sheen was coming off the economic success story, with the population struggling with rising prices Sheikh Hasina might be able to control a decimated opposition through her control of security agencies and the judiciary, her task will become much more difficult if public anger continues over rising prices and she fails to check the economy’s downward spiral. It may be the proverbial swan song for Sheikh Hasina who has probably stayed far longer in the hot seat than she deserved.