Monday, August 8, 2022

Big earthquakes predicted for 2018: Is your country safe?


Scientists have warned of potential increase in earthquakes in 2018 after their critical assessment of earth movement’s data.

The warning by the experts holds substances especially after three deadly quakes struck different regions in just three months of the year. First one measuring 7.9 magnitude off the coast of Alaska; another in Honduras that registered 7.6, and a third in Peru with a magnitude of 7.1. 

The assessment was made on the basis of the earth’s movement data that shows a significant uptick in earthquakes after a certain period of slowdown in the earth’s rotation.

Countries most vulnerable to natural disasters


Geophysicists are able to measure the rotational speed of Earth extremely precisely, calculating slight variations on the order of milliseconds. Now, scientists believe a slowdown of the Earth’s rotation is the link to an observed cyclical increase in earthquakes.

According to the couple-of-year old World Risk Report, compiled by the United Nations University for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), both Greece and Turkey are among the countries in Europe where a natural disaster is most likely to strike. 

The report assigned a risk percentage to a total of 173 countries, based on the chances of experiencing earthquakes, storms, floods, droughts and sea level rises.

Earthquakes 2018 risk

Pakistan’s rating was 7.21 – means the country is at a moderate risk. Top among the least safe countries is Vanuatu with 36.4%.

“The correlation between Earth’s rotation and earthquake activity is strong and suggests there is going to be an increase in numbers of intense earthquakes next year,” said Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado in the US.

To start, the research team of geologists analyzed every earthquake to occur since 1900 at a magnitude above 7.0. They were looking for trends in the occurrence of large earthquakes. What they found is that roughly every 32 years there was an uptick in the number of significant earthquakes worldwide.

Researchers found that roughly after every 32 years there was an uptick in the number of significant earthquakes worldwide. A team of researchers found this conclusion after analysing every earthquake which occurred since 1900 at a magnitude above 7.0.

The 20 safest countries, according to the report


Qatar – 0.1%

Malta – 0.61%

Barbados – 1.16%

Saudi Arabia – 1.32%

Grenada – 1.44%

Iceland – 1.55%

Kiribati – 1.78%

Bahrain – 1.81%

United Arab Emirates – 2.1%

Sweden – 2.26%

Finland – 2.28%

Egypt – 2.34%

Norway – 3.35%

Israel – 2.49%

Singapore – 2.49%

Estonia – 2.52%

Seychelles – 2.58%

Switzerland – 2.61%

Luxembourg – 2.68%

Oman – 2.74%


The 20 least safe countries


Vanuatu – 36.43%

Tonga – 28.23%

Philippines – 27.52%

Guatemala – 20.88%

Bangladesh – 19.81%

Solomon Islands – 18.11%

Costa Rica – 16.94%

Cambodia – 16.9%

El Salvador – 16.85%

Timor-Leste – 16.37%

Papua New Guinea – 15.9%

Brunei Darussalam – 15.58%

Mauritius – 15.18%

Nicaragua – 14.89%

Japan – 14.1%

Fiji – 13.56%

Guinea-Bissau – 13.09%

Vietnam – 12.81%

Chile – 12.28%

Jamaica – 12.15%


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