Chenab River flow stabilizes after significant volatility: Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources said official monitoring shows that the discharge of the Chenab River (mainstem) has stabilised following a significant period of volatility.

In an official statement, the ministry said an extraordinary reduction in river flows was observed from December 10 to December 16, 2025.

During this period, flows frequently dropped, with the lowest recorded discharge at 870 cusecs—far below the historical 10-year minimum range of approximately 4,018 to 4,406 cusecs for the corresponding dates.

To assess the cause of the extraordinary decline in flows of Chenab Main at Marala, satellite imagery from December 8, 2025, showed a significant reduction in the surface area of the Baglihar reservoir. Subsequent imagery from December 13 indicated an increase in the reservoir’s surface area.

The ministry said this pattern suggests that India may have emptied the Baglihar reservoir and then refilled it.

It clarified that under the Indus Waters Treaty, India cannot empty the dead storage of the reservoirs of the run-of-river hydroelectric plants developed on the Western Rivers.

Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters took up the matter with the Indian Commissioner for Indus Waters, seeking the details/data relating to extraordinary reduction in flows of Chenab River, under the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty.

The ministry noted that a positive shift in river hydrology began on December 17, 2025, when the river flow began to rise steadily. At one point, the flow reached 6,399 cusecs, entering the historical 10-year range for the first time since the mid-December decline.

Data from the Punjab Irrigation Department shows that as of December 19, 2025, Chenab River flows are within the historical 10-year range of maximum and minimum levels.

Recent readings on December 19 recorded flows between 4,505 and 6,494 cusecs, which are consistent with—or exceed—seasonal historical averages, the statement concluded.