Karachi, 12 January 2026 – The Pakistani rupee inched higher in Monday’s session, with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) fixing the USD/PKR mark-to-market currency rate at Rs 280.0121, 4 paisa below last close and the leanest print of 2026 so far.
Priority Currencies – Quick Take
1. US Dollar (USD) – 280.01 (spot)
The 4-paisa retreat keeps the greenback glued to the 280 handle, well inside the 279–282 band that has framed trade since October. One-week forwards sit at 280.32, implying a wafer-thin 0.11 % carry. Exporters continue to sell above 280.50, while oil importers nibble below 280.00.
*“Liquidity is ample; the currency rate is drifting on positional tidy-ups rather than fresh macro cues,”* said a senior treasury dealer.
2. British Pound (GBP) – 376.74 (spot)
Sterling grabs headline space at 376.74 after UK wage data cooled BoE rate-cut bets; one-year forward is 392.84, implying 4.3 % annualised rupee softness. Textile exporters to Manchester are locking in six-month receivables above 378, keeping forward points well bid.
3. Saudi Riyal (SAR) – 74.67
SAR edges 1 paisa lower to 74.67; 12-month forward is 77.27, an annualised 3.5 %—still the tightest band among major remittance corridors. Exchange booths see steady demand from Umrah travellers locking in ahead of the January rush.
4. UAE Dirham (AED) – 76.24
AED softens 1 paisa to 76.24; six-month forward is 77.48, implying 3.2 % annualised rupee softness. UAE salary inflows remain anchored to formal banking, keeping the pair quietly stable.
5. Qatari Riyal (QAR) – 76.61
QAR slips 1 paisa to 76.61; 12-month forward is 79.89, a 4.3 % annualised gap—virtually identical to SAR and AED, underscoring uniform Gulf-peg calm.
6. Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) – 915.67
KWD is flat at 915.67; twelve-month forwards at 962.06 equate to 5.1 % annualised PKR weakness—marginally wider than GCC peers owing to thinner dinar liquidity.
7. Australian Dollar (AUD) – 187.92
The “Aussie” rebounds to 187.92 as iron-ore steadies above $103/t. One-year forward is 195.25, implying 3.9 % annualised rupee deprecation—almost flat against the SAR curve, confirming commodity-driven moves.
8. Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 201.85
The “Loonie” slips to 201.85 as WTI crude eases to $76/bbl. Twelve-month forwards at 213.31 still pencil out to 5.7 % annualised rupee softness, but importers of prairie pulses are said to have covered February shipments early, capping further CAD losses.
Other Major Currencies
Euro opens at 326.14, down 0.3 % on the week after softer German CPI data; one-year forward is 346.57, translating into 5.9 % annualised rupee weakness. Japanese yen remains the cheapest major at 1.77 per unit, but forwards price 7.3 % annualised PKR decline—the steepest among G-10 pairs. Swiss franc is 351.62; Singapore dollar 217.77; Swedish krona 30.35; Norwegian krone 27.85; Danish krone 43.79; New Zealand dollar 161.22; Chinese yuan 40.15; Turkish lira 6.50; Russian ruble 3.51; Indian rupee 3.11; Bangladeshi taka 2.29—all inside well-worn ranges and implying no event-risk premium ahead of the IMF’s first-quarter 2026 review.
Market Context & Outlook
The uniformly slender forward premiums—barely 5–6 % annualised even for the least-liquid pairs—tell currency desks that both importers and exporters believe the State Bank has enough cover to defend the rupee through the winter remittance season. Reserves have risen $1.5 billion in six weeks to $21.1 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) slipped to 98.2 in November, a level the IMF considers “competitive but not undervalued.” Unless oil spikes above $90 or political noise disrupts the Fund programme, traders expect the USD currency rate to remain hand-cuffed to the 278–282 corridor for the opening quarter of 2026, dragging the rest of the currency mosaic along in its slipstream.