Karachi, 05 January 2026 – The Pakistani rupee kicked off the first working week of 2026 on a firmer note, with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) fixing the USD/PKR mark-to-market currency rate at Rs 280.0741, 5 paisa below last close and the leanest print since early December.
Priority Currencies – Quick Take
1. US Dollar (USD) – 280.07 (spot)
The 5-paisa retreat keeps the greenback pinned near the 280 handle, well inside the 279–282 band that has framed trade since October. One-week forwards sit at 280.45, implying a wafer-thin 0.13 % carry. Exporters continue to sell above 280.50, while oil importers nibble below 280.00.
*“Holiday-thin liquidity is amplifying the move; the currency rate is searching for a fresh equilibrium,”* said a senior treasury dealer.
2. British Pound (GBP) – 376.98 (spot)
Sterling vaults into the headline mix at 376.98 after UK wage data cooled BoE rate-cut bets; one-year forward is 393.57, implying 4.4 % annualised rupee softness. Textile exporters to Manchester are locking in six-month receivables above 380, keeping forward points well bid.
3. Saudi Riyal (SAR) – 74.66
SAR edges 1 paisa lower to 74.66; 12-month forward is 77.19, an annualised 3.4 %—still the tightest curve among major remittance corridors. Exchange booths see brisk walk-in demand from pilgrims ahead of the January Umrah rush.
4. UAE Dirham (AED) – 76.24
Dirham softens 1 paisa to 76.24; six-month forward is 77.52, implying 3.3 % annualised rupee softness. UAE salary inflows continue to migrate to banking channels, anchoring the pair.
5. Qatari Riyal (QAR) – 76.24
QAR mirrors AED at 76.24; 12-month forward is 79.33, a 4.6 % annualised gap—identical to SAR/AED, underscoring uniform Gulf-peg calm.
6. Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) – 903.95
KWD sheds Rs 7.5 to 903.95 on the softer USD leg. Twelve-month forwards at 966.50 pencil out to 6.9 % annualised PKR weakness—wider than GCC peers owing to thinner dinar liquidity.
7. Australian Dollar (AUD) – 187.63
The “Aussie” rebounds to 187.63 as iron-ore steadies above $100/t. One-year forward is 195.15, implying 4.0 % annualised rupee deprecation—almost flat against the SAR curve, confirming commodity-driven moves.
8. Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 204.25
The “Loonie” holds above 204.25 as WTI crude hovers near $77/bbl. Twelve-month forwards at 216.24 still pencil out to 5.9 % annualised rupee softness, but importers of prairie pulses are said to have covered February shipments early, capping further CAD gains.
Other Majors – Single-Paragraph Round-Up
Euro opens at 328.80, down 0.4 % on the week after softer German CPI data; one-year forward is 348.14, translating into 5.9 % annualised rupee weakness. Japanese yen remains the cheapest major at 1.78 per unit, but forwards price 7.8 % annualised PKR decline—the steepest among G-10 pairs. Swiss franc is 353.87; Singapore dollar 204.67; Swedish krona 25.21; Norwegian krone 24.52; Danish krone 38.74; New Zealand dollar 156.28; Chinese yuan 39.97; Turkish lira 6.52; Russian ruble 3.56; Indian rupee 3.11; Bangladeshi taka 2.29—all inside well-worn ranges and implying no event-risk premium ahead of the IMF’s first-quarter 2026 review.
Market Context & Outlook
The uniformly slender forward premiums—barely 5–7 % annualised even for the least-liquid pairs—tell currency desks that both importers and exporters believe the State Bank has enough cover to defend the rupee through the winter remittance season. Reserves have risen $1.5 billion in six weeks to $20.7 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) slipped to 98.2 in November, a level the IMF considers “competitive but not undervalued.” Unless oil spikes above $90 or political noise disrupts the Fund programme, traders expect the USD currency rate to remain hand-cuffed to the 278–282 corridor for the opening quarter of 2026, dragging the rest of the currency mosaic along in its slipstream.