Karachi, 19 January 2026: The Pakistani rupee firmed on the first working day of the week, with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) fixing the USD/PKR mark-to-market currency rate at Rs 279.9235, 9 paisa below last close and the first sub-280 print of 2026.
Priority Currencies – Quick Take
1. US Dollar (USD) – 279.92 (spot)
The 9-paisa retreat snaps a three-day stalemate and drags the pair back toward the lower edge of its 279–282 range. One-week forwards sit at 280.14, implying a wafer-thin 0.08 % carry. Exporters are selling above 280.20, while oil importers pick up dips below 279.80.
“Liquidity is flush; the currency rate is drifting on year-end corporate tidy-ups rather than fresh macro cues,”* said a senior treasury dealer.
2. British Pound (GBP) – 374.90 (spot)
Sterling vaults into the spotlight at 374.90 after UK wage data cooled BoE rate-cut bets; one-year forward is 389.41, implying 3.9 % annualised rupee softness. Textile exporters to Manchester are locking in six-month receivables above 376, keeping forward points well bid.
3. Saudi Riyal (SAR) – 74.65
SAR edges 1 paisa lower to 74.65; 12-month forward is 76.93, an annualised 3.1 %—still the tightest band among major remittance corridors. Exchange booths see steady demand from Umrah travellers locking in ahead of the January rush.
4. UAE Dirham (AED) – 76.22
AED softens 1 paisa to 76.22; six-month forward is 77.42, implying 3.1 % annualised rupee softness. UAE salary inflows remain anchored to formal banking, keeping the pair quietly stable.
5. Qatari Riyal (QAR) – 76.80
QAR slips 1 paisa to 76.80; 12-month forward is 79.77, a 4.3 % annualised gap—virtually identical to SAR and AED, underscoring uniform Gulf-peg calm.
6. Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) – 915.38
KWD sheds Rs 0.3 to 915.38 on the softer USD cross. Twelve-month forwards at 957.71 equate to 4.6 % annualised PKR weakness—marginally wider than GCC peers owing to thinner dinar liquidity.
7. Australian Dollar (AUD) – 187.32
The “Aussie” slips to 187.32 as iron-ore dips below $100/t. One-year forward is 193.88, implying 3.5 % annualised rupee deprecation—almost flat against the SAR curve, confirming commodity-driven moves.
8. Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 201.48
The “Loonie” retreats to 201.48 as WTI crude eases to $74/bbl. Twelve-month forwards at 212.13 still pencil out to 5.3 % annualised rupee softness, but importers of prairie pulses are said to have covered February shipments early, capping further CAD losses.
Other Major Currencies
Euro opens at 325.48, down 0.5 % on the week after softer German CPI data; one-year forward is 343.53, translating into 5.6 % annualised rupee weakness. Japanese yen remains the cheapest major at 1.77 per unit, but forwards price 7.0 % annualised PKR decline—the steepest among G-10 pairs. Swiss franc is 350.23; Singapore dollar 217.65; Swedish krona 30.33; Norwegian krone 27.76; Danish krone 43.56; New Zealand dollar 161.56; Chinese yuan 40.20; Turkish lira 6.47; Russian ruble 3.59; Indian rupee 3.08; Bangladeshi taka 2.29—all inside well-worn ranges and implying no event-risk premium ahead of the IMF’s first-quarter 2026 review.
Market Context & Outlook
The uniformly slender forward premiums—barely 5–6 % annualised even for the least-liquid pairs—tell currency desks that both importers and exporters believe the State Bank has enough cover to defend the rupee through the winter remittance season. Reserves have risen $1.5 billion in six weeks to $21.2 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) slipped to 98.2 in November, a level the IMF considers “competitive but not undervalued.” Unless oil spikes above $90 or political noise disrupts the Fund programme, traders expect the USD currency rate to remain hand-cuffed to the 278–282 corridor for the opening quarter of 2026, dragging the rest of the currency mosaic along in its slipstream.