Europe could start seeing physical shortages of jet fuel by June due to the Iran war if the region is only able to replace half of the fuel supplies it normally gets from the Middle East, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report.
Global jet fuel and kerosene demand averaged 7.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with Gulf exports the largest source to the global market, averaging nearly 400,000 bpd, the report added.
Here are some key details:
- Europe has the highest dependency on jet fuel from the Middle East, with the region supplying nearly 375,000 bpd, or 75%, of Europe’s net jet fuel imports.
- Within Europe, levels of stockpiled fuel vary from country to country. Spain, with plentiful stocks, is a net exporter of jet fuel, while Britain, which is also the region’s largest consumer, imports 65% of its demand.
- If Europe manages to replace all of its Middle East imports and volumes, jet fuel stocks will adequately cover the IEA’s assessment of 2026 demand.
- If stocks of jet fuel in Europe were to drop below 23 days of demand cover, physical shortages and demand destruction would emerge at select airports. Europe’s stocks have not dropped below 29 days’ cover since 2020.
- If Europe is only able to replace 75% of its Middle East volumes, there would be insufficient inventory to meet demand in summer months and stocks would drop below the 23-day level by August. But if only 50% of the supply is replaceable, then stocks will hit the 23-day level in June.