Pakistan and India are set for a high-stakes showdown on Sunday, February 1, in what has effectively become a virtual knockout for a place in the ICC Men’s U19 World Cup 2026 semi-finals.
While fans are already dreaming of a potential Pakistan vs India final, the reality is that both teams qualifying from Super Six Group 2 is highly unlikely, though not impossible.
The outcome hinges on the result of England vs New Zealand, scheduled for Friday, January 30.
England currently lead their Super Six group, boasting an unbeaten 3-0 record, which includes wins carried forward against Pakistan and Zimbabwe from the group stage.
If England beat New Zealand, they will finish on eight points, securing a semi-final spot and leaving only one place for either Pakistan or India.
However, if New Zealand manage to turn things around and pull off an upset, the door opens for both Pakistan and India.
In that scenario, a Pakistan win over India on Sunday would create a three-way tie at six points, with Net Run Rate (NRR) deciding the top two teams to advance.
At present, England’s NRR is 1.989, while Pakistan sits at 1.484 and India at 3.337. Pakistan can improve its NRR significantly with a dominant performance against India, potentially pipping England and qualifying for the semi-final with India.
However, in case of England’s victory, Pakistan not only have to defeat India, but to win in a manner to surpass their arch-rivals in NRR to make it to the semi-finals.
Currently, India hold the advantage with six points and a better NRR; however, the NRR gap may look daunting, but it’s not as impossible as it seems.
If Pakistan bat first and post a total of 300, they would need to win by at least 85 runs to surpass India’s NRR.
If Pakistan bowl first and restrict India to 200, they would need to chase the target in roughly 31.5 overs.
For a target of 251, Pakistan would need to finish the chase in about 33.2 overs.