India's meat exports forecast for 2026: Modest growth amid domestic priorities

New Delhi: India’s buffalo meat (carabeef) sector is expected to see modest expansion in 2026, with production and exports projected to rise slightly as domestic consumption takes precedence over international demand, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report.

The USDA forecasts carabeef production at 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) in calendar year 2026, a 1% increase from an estimated 4.6 MMT in 2025.

This growth is largely attributed to rising domestic needs, supported by India’s vast bovine inventory of approximately 307.5 million head.

Exports are projected at 1.55 MMT in 2026, up about 1% from 2025 levels (estimated around 1.54–1.65 MMT depending on final year-end data).

The subdued export growth reflects steady shipments to core markets like Malaysia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, offset by slower demand in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Iraq.

Domestic consumption is forecast to reach 3.2 MMT in 2026, a 2% rise over 2025, driven by population growth, urbanization, and increasing preference for affordable protein sources among younger consumers. Partial data for 2025 supports a positive trajectory heading into the new year.

For the Indian fiscal year 2025-26 (April-August), buffalo meat exports totaled 485,441 tonnes valued at $1.7 billion, indicating resilience despite global trade challenges.

Earlier partial reports for calendar 2025 showed strong early performance, aligning with USDA projections of around 1.58–1.65 MMT for the full year.

India continues to rank among the world’s top exporters of carabeef—classified under global “beef” statistics—thanks to its large water buffalo herd and halal-compliant processing.

However, restrictions on cow slaughter and disease concerns limit access to premium markets. Industry sources note that while export demand may soften in some regions, competitive pricing and compliance with international standards will sustain India’s position in key halal markets across the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

Final 2025 figures and updated 2026 outlooks will be available from APEDA and USDA in early 2026. The sector remains a vital contributor to India’s agricultural exports, providing affordable red meat to global consumers amid rising protein demand.

Data derived from Index Box Market Intelligence and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) 2025 Livestock and Products Annual reports.