Indonesia to surpass U.S. in university enrollment

JAKARTA: Indonesia is rapidly emerging as one of the world’s most dynamic higher education markets, driven by a surge in university enrollment and a fast-growing student-age population.

A new analysis by the Times Higher Education data team projects that by 2035, Indonesia will overtake both the United States and Brazil to become the world’s third-largest university system by student population, behind only China and India. The projection marks a significant realignment in global higher education demand.

The scale of growth is remarkable. Indonesia is expected to add 4.3 million new university students within the next decade, bringing the total to around 13 million.

This expansion is being propelled by rising participation rates, the momentum of a youthful population, and increasing demand for higher skills in a competitive economy. Enrollment is rising across all levels—from bachelor’s to master’s and doctoral programs—reflecting a nationwide drive toward upskilling.

In contrast, the United States faces demographic and structural constraints.

According to Lucia Costantini, lead data scientist at dataHE, U.S. enrollment patterns are increasingly influenced by demographic stagnation: while university participation rates are rising, the size of the college-age population is shrinking, older learners are enrolling at lower rates, and population growth is too weak to sustain long-term expansion.

As a result, the U.S. is losing its share of global enrollment even as its universities remain academically influential, Times Higher Education reported.

Across Asia, however, demand is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. By 2035, South Asia is projected to reach 66 million university students and East Asia is expected to reach 53 million.

India and China will maintain global dominance, with projected enrollments of 53 million and 47 million students respectively.

However, Russia is projected to experience the steepest enrollment decline among the world’s 20 largest higher education systems. Much of Eastern Europe—including Albania, Belarus and Lithuania—is also expected to register sharp drops due to long-term population shrinkage.