Met Office forecast below normal Monsoon rainfall in 2026

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has in its forecast for the 2026 monsoon season predicted below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country during its June to August weather outlook.

The northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, adjoining areas of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir are expected to receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, Met Office said.

The temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the country from July to September 2026.

Temperature would remain above normal in northern Punjab and western parts of Gilgit Baltistan region. The Indus River carries meltwater from northern glaciers combined with monsoon rains, creating dangerous water levels. Mountain regions are at risk from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and landslides due to accelerated glacier melting.

The La Nina weather pattern is expected to strengthen monsoon systems, particularly affecting Sindh, southern Punjab, and Balochistan. Southern Sindh remains the most vulnerable region, with flat terrain and poor drainage infrastructure making even moderate rainfall potentially cause widespread flooding.

DG Met Office Dr Muhammad Afzal has said that below-normal rainfall is likely to cause moisture stress for Kharif sowing and early crop development, reduced rain-fed agricultural productivity, and increase in irrigation demand.

High temperatures, particularly over the southern regions, combined with humid conditions due to intermittent rainfall episodes, may increase the risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, the official said.

Enhanced rainfall in northern areas may increase the likelihood of flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous and flood-prone regions of northern parts of the country.

Heavy rainfall events during the season may lead to urban flooding in low-lying areas of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.