Pakistan face ifs and buts for T20 World Cup semifinal berth

Pakistan’s hopes of reaching the semi-finals of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 remain alive but precarious, as their qualification depends on a combination of match results and net run-rate calculations in Super Eights Group 2.

After two matches, Salman Ali Agha’s men are placed third in the group with one point, having seen their clash against New Zealand washed out before suffering defeat to England.

England, unbeaten with two wins from two, have already sealed a semi-final berth and sit top of the group on four points.

Pakistan’s qualification scenarios are now straightforward but challenging.

First scenario

If New Zealand lose both of their remaining Super Eights fixtures — against England and Sri Lanka — Pakistan will only need to beat Sri Lanka in their final group match to secure a top-two finish and advance to the semi-finals.

Second scenario

Should New Zealand lose one of their remaining games, Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka and then rely on a superior net run rate (NRR) to finish above the Black Caps.

For Pakistan to qualify:

If New Zealand lose remaining two games, Pakistan will only need to beat Sri Lanka.

If New Zealand lose one of remaining two games, Pakistan will need to beat Sri Lanka and rely on NRR.

If New Zealand win both games, Pakistan are out.

— Mazher Arshad (@MazherArshad) February 24, 2026

However, if New Zealand win both of their remaining matches, Pakistan will be eliminated regardless of their own result.

Pakistan’s current NRR stands at -0.461, increasing the importance of a comprehensive victory should qualification be decided on margins. Sri Lanka, bottom of the group with no points and an NRR of -2.550, still face both New Zealand and Pakistan and could yet influence the race.

England and Sri Lanka are scheduled to meet in Colombo later today.