Pakistan on Alert: Countering India's New Proxy Destabilization Strategy

As I survey the geopolitical chessboard, it’s clear to me that the BJP-led establishment in India finds itself backed into a corner, a “constraint trap” of its own making. Their grand designs – whether it was the audacious hope of seeing Pakistan splinter or, at the very least, permanently discrediting our Armed Forces and setting a precedent for routine border violations – haven’t panned out. They’ve pushed, they’ve prodded, and they’ve found us unyielding.

Now, with their political survival increasingly on the line, I believe they’re gearing up for a different kind of offensive, a more insidious one. Their strategy, as I see it, will be threefold. First, they’ll ramp up efforts to destabilize Pakistan, but not through direct confrontation they’ve learned can backfire. No, this will be through indirect means, the classic playbook of proxy warfare. Second, I expect them to double down on their military posturing and development in sensitive zones, like the Zuni Area of Exchanges, setting the stage for what they probably imagine as a “round 2.” And third, they’ll be waiting for what they deem the opportune moment to relaunch a “Phase 2” of whatever larger strategic gambit they’re nursing.

What does this mean for us, here in Pakistan? It means we need to brace ourselves for an intensified wave of Indian-sponsored instability. They’ll look for our fault lines, the societal seams, and they’ll pour resources into trying to tear them open. I anticipate our western provinces will bear the brunt of this, with terrorist and subversive movements – let’s call them TSMs for what they are – receiving renewed support, all with the aim of spreading that chaos deeper into Punjab, into the heart of Sindh, and even towards AJK. Beyond the kinetic, they’ll try to fan the flames of public dissent, manufacturing divisions where they can.

This is where our national clarity and resolve become absolutely paramount. Our counter-campaign, our narrative, has to be sharp, focused, and unwavering. The core message, the one that must resonate through every town and village, is that India is actively sponsoring terrorism within Pakistan. We’ve seen the evidence before, and we must be vigilant in collecting and showcasing it again. We know their proxies; we’ve dealt with them before, and we will clamp down on them with renewed vigor. We will beat them at this game because our survival and integrity depend on it.

To galvanize our nation and to steel ourselves for what’s coming, I believe we need to internalize and project four key themes.

First, this current quiet, this seeming pause on some fronts, is deceptive. We must understand that hostilities, in one form or another, are not just possible but imminent. We need to be prepared, not paranoid, but certainly not complacent.

Second, the absolute, unshakeable unity of our people is our greatest shield and our sharpest sword. When they try to divide us, we must stand together, shoulder to shoulder, recognizing the enemy’s hand in any attempt to sow discord.

Third, a deep, abiding conviction: We will defeat India in these endeavors. Not just in a military sense if it comes to that, but we will defeat their attempts to destabilize us, to break our spirit, to undermine our nationhood. This isn’t jingoism; it’s a quiet confidence born of resilience.

And fourth, perhaps a more reflective, long-term observation: The internal contradictions of an “unnatural State,” as many across the globe perceive India with its myriad unresolved tensions and suppressed identities, may well lead to its own logical unraveling. This isn’t something we need to actively pursue; it’s a potential geopolitical reality we should simply acknowledge as we fortify our own foundations.

So, yes, I see challenging times ahead. India will undoubtedly use proxies to try and unsettle us. But I also see a Pakistan that is aware, that is prepared, and that is determined. We will meet their proxies, we will expose their agenda, and we shall, with the grace of the Almighty and the strength of our people, overcome.