Pakistan's growth rate higher than that of China: Harvard research

CAMBRIDGE: Researchers at Center for International Development (CID) at the Harvard University has predicted Pakistan annual growth rate at 6 percent over the next 10 years, which is higher than that of China.

According to a study called The Atlas of Economic Complexity, Pakistan’s 5.97 percent growth rate is above that of China, which is set to grow by 4.41 percent.

The CID based its growth projections on the measures of each country’s economic complexity.

The research said Pakistan’s immediate neighbour India, is predicted to grow by 7.72 per cent, the world’s highest. Barring India, Pakistan will beat all Asian economies in GDP growth. These also include giant Muslim economies.

The GDP growth of some Muslim, regional countries

Indonesia 5.82 per cent

Turkey 5.64 per cent

Malaysia 4.82 per cent

Sri Lanka 3.77 per cent

Saudi Arabia 3.17 per cent

Bangladesh 2.82 per cent

UAE 2.41 per cent

Other member countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries:

Tajikistan 3.61 per cent

Uzbekistan 3.32 per cent

Kazakhstan 2.65 per cent

Kyrgyzstan 5.77 per cent

Russia 2.60 per cent

The researchers attribute India’s rapid growth prospects to the fact that it is particularly well positioned to continue diversifying into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date. India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics.

According to the study, the new 2015 data reveal a decline in China’s exports. China’s economic complexity ranking also falls four spots for the first time since the global financial crisis. China’s rapid growth rate over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and its income, which researchers suggest is the harbinger of slower growth. The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, though at 4.4 percent annually for the coming decade, the slowdown relative to the current growth trend is significant.

The researchers said the reason for the world income differences is that poor countries produce few goods that many countries can make, while rich countries produce a great diversity of goods, including products that few other countries can make.

“Economic complexity not only describes why countries are rich or poor today, but also can predict future growth, about five times more accurately than the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index,” said Sebastian Bustos, a research fellow at CID.