European and Asian refiners are paying record high prices of near $150 a barrel for some crude oil grades, far exceeding prices for paper futures, highlighting the worsening supply crisis from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
The Iran war has forced the shutdown of at least 12 million barrels per day – about 12% of world supply – from the Middle East due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Brent oil futures reached $119.50 a barrel last month, the highest since 2022 although still short of the 2008 record high of $147.50. The nearby Brent contract is for June delivery.
Competition for supply from Asian and European refiners to replace disrupted Middle Eastern oil flows has helped to drive up the prices of replacement crudes for more immediate delivery, such as those in Europe and Africa.
As a result, some crudes are hitting records already. The outright price of North Sea Forties crude reached $146.09 a barrel on Tuesday, according to LSEG data, above the 2008 level and an all time high.
The main driver of prices such as that of Forties is “panic” over supplies, said Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader. “When there is a real, physical shortage, people are not thinking about July delivery – June loading and hence June futures prices – but oil NOW.”
The price of Forties and many other cargoes around the world is linked to the physical crude benchmark called dated Brent which is trading almost $20 higher than the price of Brent futures for June delivery according to LSEG data because it reflects the price of cargoes for immediate delivery.
“At the moment, the market is scrambling for prompt, refinery-usable barrels, and stress is appearing first in the part of the benchmark that is closest to the immediate physical problem,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report.
Oil price benchmark publisher S&P Global Energy Platts assessed the price of dated Brent on April 2 at $141.365, close to the record high of $144.22 in 2008, a Platts spokesperson said. Using the Platts dated Brent figure would put the price of Forties, and many other physical cargoes, well above $150.
Prices of refined products in Europe were close to record highs on Tuesday.
Jet fuel prices in Europe hovered at $226.40 a barrel, close to a record high hit in mid-March, LSEG data shows. Diesel prices were still shy of their record highs hit in 2022, standing at $203.59 a barrel on Tuesday.