PRAC raises concerns over 'insufficient' policy rate cut

The Policy Research and Advocacy Council (PRAC) has expressed concerns over the ‘insufficient’ reduction in the policy rate by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

In a statement issued here, the PRAC maintained that decision of the SBP to cut the policy rate by ‘only’ 100 basis points (bps) in its meeting came at a time when the inflation rate has reached a record low of just 0.28% in April 2025, which is far below the central bank’s target of 5-7%.

“The PRAC had recommended a 200 bps cut considering the current economic conditions, as the private sector is in dire need of cheap credit.”

PRAC Chairman and former Finance Secretary Muhammad Yunus Dagha said that SBP’s ‘cautious’ approach is stifling economic recovery and further restricting credit to the private sector, while major decisions are still needed.

“Pakistan’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio is only 12.0%, one of the lowest levels among developing countries. In contrast, India (50.1%), Turkey (50.3%) and Bangladesh (37.6%) have higher credit availability to the private sector,” the statement added.

“The public sector, including government institutions, accounts for 76.5% of total credit, leaving the private sector with only 23.5% of credit. This ratio was 29% in March 2022 when interest rates were in single digits.”

The PRAC recommended that once inflation is under control, the SBP should reduce the policy rate by 200 bps to bring it in line with other countries in the region to promote economic growth

“When countries like India, China, and Vietnam are growing at low interest rates, Pakistan will also have to follow the same path. Not reducing interest rates further is hurting the private sector and slowing the recovery of the economy,” Muhammad Yunus Dagha said.

Earlier on May 5, The SBP announced a 100-basis point reduction in its key policy rate, bringing it down to 11%, as decided by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) during its meeting

The Monetary Policy Committee highlighted a sharp decline in inflation during March and April, attributed to reduced administered electricity prices and a continued downtrend in food inflation. Core inflation also fell to 8.0 percent in April, reflecting a favorable base effect and moderate demand. The committee assessed that the inflation outlook has improved, with expectations for it to stabilize within the target range of 5–7 percent in the coming months.