Undermining CPEC- India's prime goal

In August, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) killed 70 people, including civilians from Punjab and Pakistan Army officials, while they were travelling in Balochistan. With the provincial government and sporadic military and police actions failing to crush the insurgency, Pakistan launched a specific counterterrorism operation, Azm-e-Istehkam, targeting the BLA and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Pakistan is particularly impacted by the collaboration between the Indian and Afghan governments, which provide ammunition, financial support, military training, and shelter to insurgents. India, emboldened by U.S. opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), views the project as a means for China to expand its influence in Asia. The goal is to encourage the BLA and TTP to escalate terrorist activities, discouraging potential investors and preventing economic growth in Pakistan.

This strategy is evident from a review of social media and public protests by various Baloch groups. Numerous videos have surfaced in which the BLA and TTP threaten China and Pakistan with severe consequences if the Chinese government does not withdraw from CPEC. By fostering instability in the tribal areas, they aim to frighten Chinese investors and depict the federal government as exploiting provincial resources at the expense of the local population. Notably, TTP and BLA suicide attacks have been reported for the first time in Pashtun areas of Baluchistan. This campaign has had a significant impact on the internal political landscape of the province.

India has spread misinformation, claiming that due to security concerns for its workers on CPEC projects, China is reluctant to complete the second phase and has advised its nationals to slow down participation. To deter potential third-country investors, Indian vloggers based in the Middle East continue to propagate falsehoods. The second phase, crucial for industrialisation in CPEC Special Economic Zones (SEZs), is of particular concern to the government.

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Pakistan finds itself in a difficult position. Despite repeated appeals, the Taliban government has done nothing to rein in the BLA and TTP terrorists operating from Afghan territory. They have also refused to repatriate TTP activists involved in terrorist attacks on Chinese nationals. Pakistan presented a dossier with documentary evidence, including the names of TTP terrorists responsible for killing Chinese engineers in the Besham attack. Pakistan also raised the issue with the Taliban during recent UN talks in Doha, where press reports indicated an exchange of heated words between representatives.

In June, Balochistan’s Home Minister, Ziaullah Langau, exposed India as the “single investor” in the TTP-BLA nexus. TTP’s Nasrullah, alias Maulvi Mansoor, captured in January 2024, confessed that India’s intelligence agency RAW aimed to form a nexus between the BLA and TTP, with TTP bases established in Khuzdar. RAW’s objectives in Balochistan are threefold: to sabotage CPEC projects, including targeting Chinese citizens; to carry out kidnappings for ransom to highlight enforced disappearances and discredit Pakistan’s intelligence agencies; and to spread anarchy by fuelling terrorist activities.

Previously, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the UN, Munir Akram, urged the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to take decisive action against terrorism originating from Afghanistan, which allows terrorists to operate with impunity. In the last TTP attack in Bannu, eight Pakistani soldiers were martyred. The Defence Minister’s threat of retaliatory action did not yield results; instead, TTP and other Afghanistan-based splinter groups joined the BLA to further destabilise the region.

Insurgency in Baluchistan is not new, but the involvement of more countries and groups with the BLA and TTP, along with the extensive use of social media to gain visibility, is. The province’s economic vulnerabilities are being exploited through cyber-attacks, economic espionage, and propaganda. Disinformation and manipulation are used to exacerbate existing challenges. Ethnic divisions, exploited by these elements, hinder the government’s ability to maintain law and order, eroding public trust and further complicating the situation.

 

Pakistan is grappling with an insurgency, compounded by a proxy war with India and a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The security forces’ heavy-handed response often leads to allegations of human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary detentions. Such actions fuel resentment among the Baloch population, providing further material for separatist propaganda.

India-sponsored and Afghan-based insurgents have exploited ethnic and economic disparities, with CPEC projects becoming key targets of hybrid warfare. India’s strategy includes supporting separatist groups, spreading disinformation, economic exploitation, cyber-attacks, false-flag operations, and legal manipulation. India’s portrayal of the Baloch people as oppressed and marginalised is amplified in media outlets to garner international sympathy for their cause. A former CIA director alleged that India pays the Taliban government to recruit TTP sympathisers and provides military and diplomatic support to the BLA.

Among CPEC projects, the Gwadar port is a prime target due to its vital geostrategic location for China’s supply chains. This has attracted foreign meddling, particularly from India, the U.S., Iran, and some Western countries, which portray the port as a Chinese military base threatening their interests. Pakistan faces growing difficulty in managing these complex threats. China is deeply concerned about the security of its nationals working on CPEC projects and has reached out to the Taliban on the issue, but to no avail. India is unlikely to cease its interference in Baluchistan, even if dialogue between Pakistan and India resumes, leaving little hope for respite.