So, according to the state-issued document, the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, Pakistan’s agriculture sector grew 2.89 percent last financial year, nearly doubling last year’s sluggish 1.53 percent, yet this headline masks a deeper fragility. Beneath the modest rebound lies a sector still battered by climate shocks, water mismanagement, and policy volatility that no single season of decent rainfall can fix.
The crop sub-sector recovered from a 1.01 percent contraction to post 1.44 percent growth, while livestock—the quiet powerhouse—expanded 3.75 percent and now drives 62.4 percent of agricultural value addition. Sugarcane surged 6.2 percent to 89.45 million tonnes, fueled by higher yields and a 2.4 percent area expansion as farmers chased better returns. Wheat rose 4.3 percent to 29.61 million tonnes, coming within a whisker of its 29.7 million tonne target, supported by expanded sowing and post-flood soil moisture. Rice climbed 2.8 percent to 9.99 million tonnes despite 3.6 percent less land under cultivation, as yields jumped 6.6 percent on improved water availability.
But the gains were uneven. Cotton production slipped 0.5 percent to 7.05 million bales as farmers shifted land to more lucrative crops, while maize fell 2.7 percent to 8.79 million tonnes, hit by flood damage and a continuing yield decline. Pulses, vegetables, and fruits helped the “other crops” category grow 2.43 percent, but the overall picture is one of a sector running in place rather than sprinting ahead.
Pakistan does not lack water; it wastes it
Pakistan’s canal systems now deliver 20-40 percent less water than needed during peak demand, and tail-end farmers often get nothing at all. Wheat, requiring three to four irrigations, is frequently managed with just two—slashing yields by 10-25 percent and incomes by Rs 25,000-50,000 per acre. As surface water fails, farmers have turned to tube wells, which now supply 50-70 percent of irrigation in parts of Punjab. But groundwater tables are falling 0.3-1.0 meters annually, and pumping costs Rs 3,000-5,000 per acre per round, with seasonal bills hitting Rs 15,000-30,000.
The irony is brutal: Pakistan does not lack water; it wastes it. Flood irrigation dominates, squandering 30-50 percent at the field level. Canal seepage in unlined channels loses another 20-30 percent before water even reaches farms. Poor timing—over-watering early, under-watering at critical stages—cuts yields by another 10-20 percent.
The Indus River System Authority warns that Punjab and Sindh could face 30-35 percent shortages as reservoirs at Tarbela and Mangla approach dead levels. During the 2025-26 Rabi season, availability improved to 33.2 million acre-feet from 29.4 MAF the previous year, but this barely scratches the surface of structural need.
Climate and Policy: Twin Headwinds
The 2025 floods caused less damage than feared, but they were a reminder that climate shocks are now the baseline, not the exception. Erratic monsoons, intensifying heatwaves, and shifting sowing windows are already altering what farmers can reliably grow. Rice and maize yields suffered climate stress in 2025, and the border closure with Afghanistan further depressed prices for citrus, potatoes, and other crops.
Government policy made matters worse. The abrupt end to wheat support prices—without replacement supply management—crushed farm-gate rates by up to Rs 2,000 per 40 kg during the harvest glut. An 18 percent sales tax on locally produced cotton, while imports remained exempt, further discouraged cultivation. The scrapping of indicative sugarcane pricing left farmers exposed to millers paying below production costs. Meanwhile, the government has reportedly assured the IMF it will raise duties on fertilizers and pesticides if tax collection falls short—a move that would escalate input costs and threaten the sector’s viability.
A Rare Success Story
Livestock offers a genuine success story. Meat exports crossed $500 million in FY2025, up from $196 million a decade ago, and the government is targeting 6 percent annual growth through disease-free, traceable value chains for China and Gulf markets. But Pakistan still captures less than one percent of global meat trade, leaving vast potential untapped.
The edible oil picture is bleaker. Pakistan imported 3.65 million tonnes during July-March FY2026, with a full-year bill projected at $6 billion. Local production covers barely 10 percent of needs. A plan to raise self-sufficiency to 27 percent short-term and 70 percent long-term exists on paper, but execution has historically lagged ambition.
Pakistan’s core problem is not lack of spending—it is lack of productivity. Despite machinery subsidies and credit expansion, crop sector growth (1.7 percent annually from 2016-2025) trails population growth (2.55 percent). Cotton area has shrunk 12 percent and production 28 percent over the decade.
Water-intensive crops expand while wheat stagnates and cotton contracts, deepening risks to food security and the textile chain. Global benchmarks show Pakistani yields remain far below potential, held back by poor seed quality, weak technology adoption, and a system that rewards area over efficiency.
The 2.89 percent growth of 2025-26 is welcome, but it is not resilience. The sector remains hostage to weather, water mismanagement, and policy whiplash. New institutions like the National Agriculture & Food Security Council provide governance architecture, but what agriculture desperately needs is a shift from “more spending” to “more productivity per rupee and per drop.” Without certified inputs, water-smart cropping, and stable policy environments, Pakistan’s farms will keep lurching from crisis to crisis.
The question is not whether the sector can grow—it is whether it can finally break free of the structural rot beneath the surface.