KARACHI- July 7, 2026- Pakistani Rupee (PKR) has gained a little more ground against the dollar as State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) released its currency rates report for Tuesday. The US dollar was quoted at 278.1131 in the ready market — identical to the previous session — but the forward curve tells a different story.
The one-month dollar forward firmed to 281.4585 from 281.4585, holding steady, while the three-month pushed to 282.6336 and the one-year climbed to 292.5813.
The Saudi Riyal held at 74.0647, the UAE Dirham at 75.7182, the Canadian Dollar at 195.5582, the Bahraini Dinar at 738.7200, and the Omani Riyal at 722.3810.
The spot rates have been dead flat since July 6. The USD, SAR, AED, CAD, and Omani Riyal are all unchanged at the ready, a highly unusual situation.
However, the forward rates have moved slightly. While the one week forward Dollar to PKR softened from 278.5751 to 278.5751 – still no change – the two week forward hardened to 278.9864, the one month to 281.4585, and the three month to 282.6336. The six month forward at 286.3149 and the nine month forward at 289.7136 both creep slightly higher.
The one year forward for the Dollar to PKR, which at 292.5813, points to a circa 5.2% depreciation over the next year from the spot rate (unchanged).
The forward curve for the Dollar remains gently upward sloping, and is relatively smooth with no kinks to suggest acute pressure at the shorter end.
The Gulf currencies did not move at all at the spot rate – this is no surprise, it’s to be expected for dollar pegs and if the spot Dollar rate hasn’t moved, then the Riyal, Dirham, Dinar and Omani Riyal are unlikely to move. However, there was some mild firmness in the longer tenor forwards of the GCC currencies. The one-year Forward Saudi Riyal to PKR remained flat at 77.8111 and so did the one-year UAE Dirham Forward to PKR at 79.7051, while the Omani Riyal Forward at 759.7640 and the Bahrain Dinar Forward at 773.0226 also held still. This overall lack of movement either means nothing has actually happened in the rate market, or it has happened, but the data transmission hasn’t kept pace.
The Canadian Dollar provides an outlier in the forward market, but not at spot level. Spot remains unchanged at 195.5582. However the forward Dollar to Canadian Dollar curve implies a deeper depreciation than Dollar to PKR over the next year: Dollar/CAD one-month is at 197.0937, three-month at 199.5521, six-month at 203.0314 and the one year forward is at 209.1265. This widening gap vs Dollar/PKR over several sessions suggests the market is factoring in either relatively weaker Canadian economic fundamentals or greater demand from Pakistan for Canadian goods (such as pulses, lentils and machinery), which could exert pressure on the dollar/Canadian dollar rate itself.
What do these unchanged spot rates mean in terms of remittances from workers?
For a remittance of 1,000 SAR or 1,000 AED to be exchanged to PKR, you’d still get the same rate of exchange as before: a 1,000 SAR remittance would exchange to about PKR 74,065 while a 1,000 AED remit would go to 75,718 PKR. While this offers some predictability for household’s trying to budget on the basis of predictable inflows of remittances it also means no extra gains from a stronger rupee in their remittance conversions.
The implications of a generally stable exchange rate for importers are mild. A one-month forward delivery dollar now costs about 1.2% more than spot and three months would set you back around 1.6%. Both these premiums are not very steep so there is not an urgent pressure to lock in.