NASA: Asteroid 2024 YR4 - Moon collision risk remains low

WASHINGTON: NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are closely tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, whose projected path brings it near the Moon in 2032.

While early projections raised concerns, current calculations indicate a 4 percent chance of a lunar impact—and NASA stresses that the asteroid is highly unlikely to strike the Moon.

According to ESA estimates, the odds of YR4 hitting the lunar surface stand at roughly 1 in 25, meaning there is a 96 percent likelihood the asteroid will miss. Scientists caution, however, that these predictions remain preliminary as the object was only recently discovered.

Experts say that upcoming observations—particularly those planned for early 2026 using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope—are expected to refine the asteroid’s orbit. Early analyses suggest an 80 percent probability that new data will reduce the impact risk to near zero.

What If It Hits the Moon?

If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with the Moon, the event would be significant. Simulations indicate the impact could create a crater 0.5 to 1 kilometer wide, releasing substantial energy. The collision would eject large amounts of lunar debris into space, which could pose temporary hazards to Earth-orbiting satellites.

Some of this debris could produce an unusually intense meteor shower visible from Earth. Importantly, even in the event of a direct lunar impact, Earth itself would remain safe, though space infrastructure might face limited short-term risks.

A Rare Scientific Opportunity

For planetary scientists, a fresh, observable lunar impact would be invaluable. Such events are almost never witnessed in real time.

“The Moon is our archive,” one NASA scientist noted. “Every crater preserves a chapter of its history. Seeing one form live would be extraordinary.”

A direct observation would offer new insights into ejecta behavior, shockwave propagation across the lunar surface, and how similar impacts shaped the early solar system.

Mitigation Options Under Review

Although the probability of impact is low, NASA and ESA are evaluating precautionary options to guide future planetary-defense planning. These concepts include:

Redirecting the asteroid with a kinetic impactor, similar to NASA’s successful DART mission

Using a nuclear device to alter its trajectory—a last-resort measure and not currently considered necessary

At present, NASA emphasizes that the scenario does not warrant extreme measures, and further observations are expected to reduce the risk even more.