Azerbaijan's quiet diplomacy between Turkey and Israel

BAKU, Azerbaijan: With growing influence after its recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian separatists in 2023, Azerbaijan is using its close ties with Israel and Turkey to defuse tensions between the regional foes in Syria.

Azerbaijan’s top foreign policy adviser Hikmet Hajiyev confirmed Baku has hosted more than three rounds of talks between Turkey and Israel, who are both operating in Syria to reduce what they see as security threats.

“Azerbaijan is making diplomatic efforts for an agreement,” Hajiyev told Turkish journalists in Baku on a visit organised by the Istanbul-based Global Journalism Council.

“Both Turkey and Israel trust us.”

The overthrow of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad by Islamist-led HTS rebels, with Turkey’s blessing, sparked security concerns in Israel.

It has since staged hundreds of strikes deep inside Syria, the latest on Friday, to allegedly stop advanced weapons falling into the hands of Syria’s new authorities whom it sees as jihadists.

Israel has accused Ankara of seeking to turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate, raising fears of a confrontation.

As a close ally and strategic partner of Turkey, Azerbaijan has consistently aligned itself with Ankara’s positions on key international matters, including the Syrian issue.

But it also enjoys good relations with Israel — which is very reliant on Azerbaijani oil, and is a major arms supplier to Baku.

And now Baku, which has established contacts with Syria’s new rulers, is pushing quiet diplomacy by facilitating technical talks between Turkey and Israel.

“We are successful if the two parties agree on a common model that respects each other’s concerns,” Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Center for Analysis of International Relations, told AFP.

“Syria, and especially its northern territories, is the Turkish security concern because of the presence of terrorist groups,” notably Kurdish fighters, he said.

Turkey wants to control northern Syria but also to “have a stronger presence” around the Palmyra and T4 airbases to ensure security around Damascus, he added.

Oil shipments to Israel?

Ties between Turkey and Israel have been shattered by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, with Ankara insisting the talks were only technical.

“As long as the war in Gaza continues, Turkey will not normalise ties with Israel,” a senior Turkish official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Turkey has suspended trade with Israel over the war in Gaza.

But some Turkish opposition figures have criticised Ankara, claiming trade has continued, notably oil shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline which brings Azerbaijani oil to the southern port of Ceyhan from where it is shipped to Israel.

Turkey’s energy ministry has dismissed the claims as “completely unfounded”.

Azerbaijan’s Hajiyev said Baku had won valuable support from Israel during the Karabakh conflict, but seemed reluctant to comment on the issue of oil.

“We bought weapons from Israel during the war, we paid for them (and) Israel gave us diplomatic support,” he said.

“Azeri oil is coming to Ceyhan, but once that oil is loaded onto ships that sail on the open seas, you cannot control the final destination,” he said.

“These are the rules of the world oil market.”

‘A strategic role’

In facilitating Turkey-Israel dialogue on Syria, Azerbaijan is playing a “strategic role”, said Zaur Mammadov, chairman of Baku Political Scientists Club.

“(It) reflects Azerbaijan’s growing influence as a mediator… among regional actors,” he said.

Azerbaijan fought two wars with arch-foe Armenia for control of the disputed Karabakh region — one in the 1990s and another in 2020 — before it managed to seize the entire area in a 24-hour offensive in September 2023.

Baku is now trying to normalise ties with Yerevan — which, if successful, would be a major breakthrough in a region where major actors including Russia and Turkey all jostle for influence.

Turkish analyst Serkan Demirtas said Azerbaijan had stepped in to head off a potential clash between Turkey and Israel over their opposing security concerns in post-Assad Syria.

“A confrontation between its two best allies in the region is a situation Azerbaijan does not want at all,” he said.

“Incoming news shows that progress has been made. This indicates the growing influence of hydrocarbon-rich Azerbaijan in the region after the Karabakh war.