Canadian PM Trudeau weakened after main ally unexpectedly pulls support

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suffered an unexpected blow on Wednesday when the small party helping keep his minority Liberal government in power withdrew its automatic support, forcing him to attempt new alliances to govern.

Promising to continue governing and pushing through social programs, Trudeau dismissed talk of early elections after the left-leaning New Democratic Party’s leader Jagmeet Singh said he was “ripping up” a deal struck between the two men in 2022.

But the move leaves Trudeau reliant on support from other opposition lawmakers to survive confidence votes in the lower chamber of parliament at a time when polls show he will lose badly if an election were held now. An election must be held by the end of October 2025 under Canadian law.

“An election will come in the coming year, hopefully not until next fall, because in the meantime, we’re going to deliver for Canadians,” Trudeau told reporters at a school where he had arrived to talk about expanding lunch programs.

“I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the past years, rather than focusing on politics.”

Trudeau, 52, first took office in November 2015 but has over the last two years struggled to fend off attacks from the opposition center-right Conservatives, who blame him for high inflation and a housing crisis.

With the NDP’s support, his government has pushed through social programs designed to address the cost of living.

But the NDP’s Singh had expressed growing frustration with Trudeau in recent months, especially over what he said was the Liberals’ failure to deal with high prices at grocery stores.

“Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed,” Singh said in a video posted on social media where he also declared that he would run for prime minister in the next election. “Liberals have led people down – they don’t deserve another chance.”

ESTABLISHING INDEPENDENCE

Polls indicate the same voter fatigue plaguing Trudeau has also spread to the NDP, which despite successfully pushing the Liberals to introduce measures such as a national dental program is languishing far behind in third place.

Under the 2022 deal, the NDP agreed to keep Trudeau in power until mid-2025 in return for more social spending.

Fred Cutler, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, said the party needed to reestablish its full independence well before the election.

“At least some voters will say, ‘Oh, yeah … the NDP are not just in the Liberals’ back pocket, they’re competing against the Liberals in the election,'” Cutler said.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre reiterated his call for an early election to break up what he called a Liberal-NDP coalition driving up prices for Canadians.

The House of Commons resumes work on Sept. 16, after which the Conservatives will have the ability to propose a vote of confidence. Trudeau’s Liberals could still survive if the NDP abstained on such a vote.

A statement from the NDP said the party would decide on an issue-by-issue basis whether to support the Liberals on confidence votes, suggesting it may continue to prop up Trudeau if his fate hung in the balance.

A key moment for Trudeau’s government will be its budget update later this year, which, if voted down by legislators would trigger a new election.