The Bigger they are the Harder they Fall

Large scale economies, those who are poised to become one of the bests in the world.  The economies that reflect high GDP, skyrocketing FDIs and an economic structure that predicts global connectivity and interdependence with trade partners. – as such economies ascend the ladder, they become more vulnerable to global changes. A dependence on foreign investment could result in a crash if that investment halts.

In recent years, we’ve seen giant economies scramble over a decision made by someone thousands of miles away. When China imposed a ban on its government employees using iPhone, back in the US, Apple’s stock took an unprecedented nosedive, reducing up to 6% (a $200 billion decline)

In a similar fashion, the extreme tariffs introduced by US president Donald Trump made the Chinese manufacturers scramble for their profits.

A single wrong decision of a superpower economy or a potential one could have substantial consequences on its entire system and vision.

When Russia attacked Ukraine, the sanctions imposed by the West against it resulted in a drastic havoc that gripped its economy. Even though Russia managed to more than just survive these sanctions and limitations, not every country has the leverage to bounce back in a similar manner.

It’s baffling to imagine the government and the policy makers of a trillion-dollar economy could risk this all by making a wrong decision, especially if it involves attacking a nuclear armed state and expecting things will not escalate.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government made the decision to conduct airstrikes on Pakistani soil on 7th of May. My question was to the Indian government: in what sense did you make this regretful decision?

While condemning the Pahalgam tragedy and vowing a revenge is understandable. To conducts attacks on a foreign soil after accusing it without a shred of solid evidence is an entirely different scenario.,

This greatly reflects the BJP’s newfound psychology: an idea likely to be adopted from countries like Israel and Russia that attacking a country much smaller than them is an easy way to bully them and to project dominance in the region.

If that’s true, in no common sense should the BJP government have underestimated Pakistan as a country that could be neither bullied like Gaza nor a country which would run to its allies for help like Ukraine.

Foreign powers outside the South Asian regions are well aware of Pakistan’s capabilities. It’s army and air force are considered one of the mightiest if not the mightiest.

The US is well aware how the Pakistani military has fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Its past history of combat against India is a testament that the country is not afraid to take on an enemy 5 times larger than its size.

India-Pakistan Conflict- All Stories

And the most important thing is the Nukes. Pakistan has pretty much the same nukes as India. Then how on earth could a decision be carried out by such insane action?

It was evident that India, the bigger economy, had much to lose in case of a full-scale war with Pakistan. Billionaires have invested in the country; the West now sees it as its new favorite as it is shifting its industries from China and views India as an alternative. Its tourism industry is booming.

What did Modi think? that Pakistan, a nuclear armed neighbor, its arch rival would keep its calm? He might have thought this as Indian planes struck Pakistan.

The tables turned for India as Pakistan fought back. International media was shaken as Pakistan not only vowed retaliation against India, but launched a barrage of powerful missiles and airstrikes against a country far bigger than it and targeting not one but multiple Indian bases.

The ever-growing economy of India suffered during these few days. Its major league IPL had to be postponed. 27-30 of its airports had to shut its operations as things were escalating fast. From my understanding, India had not expected a retaliation of this scale.

Donald Trump, who initially took the situation lightly when asked at the White House, had to intervene and impose an immediate ceasefire.

From my perspective, the initiation of the ceasefire was never for the sake of Pakistan but for India.  The worst situation a prospering country could get itself into is a war with another powerful country.

With immense trade deals, infrastructure and foreign direct investments flowing in from some of the biggest corporations in the world, India had much to lose from this conflict. Attack on multiple military bases was a heavy sign that this conflict was on the path of drastic escalation.

A dogfight, arguably the most brutal one witnessed after the second world war was fought between Pakistani and Indian jets.

The first blow to India was the shooting down 5 of its fighter jets in one night- two or three of them being its priced Rafael fighters which were purchased in total 36 by India in 2016 for $9 billion from France.

The news confirmed that they were hit by Chinese made j10 c jets being operated by the Pakistani air force.

The news caused Dassault Aviation to lose its market value per share from $373/.8 to $362.05 according to TRT Global. The success of J-10c combat performance on the other hand was celebrated as a “DeepSeek moment” for the fighter jet according to South China Morning Post. An article from Financial Times states the Chinese manufacturer shares soaring more than 40% in just two days

The Modi government was pretty much pressured. Major businessmen must have approached the Indian prime minister showing their deep concern. CNN confirmed that the brutal Pakistani retaliation caused India to seek mediators.

A single reckless decision, born out of pride and greed almost caused India a full-scale war, squandering its resources and could hamper its economic growth much drastically than Pakistan’s.

From Pakistan’s point of view, the act of self-defense and to guard one’s sovereignty can compel a nation to surpass any limitations.

The Indian government, in its attempt to mirror its newfound allies like Israel that has been hammering Gaza for more than a year, has come out not as an embarrassing failure, but questions Modi’s reckless leadership and its decisions that could potentially lead the country into a war.

When Pakistan retaliated by targeting major Indian air bases and launching battle drones as far as the Capital New Delhi, it became obvious for the Indians that they had made a mistake. Modi had badly underestimated Pakistan and now was at the risk of an economic collapse.

Only with the intervention of the US was India able to secure its position and stabilize its $3.5 trillion economy.

If India essentially wants to grow into the economy, it has been promising its citizens, it needs to make smart moves, opt for a more rational approach, provide evidence before actually acting on it, and avoid bullying its neighbor, for which it now has paid a hefty price.

Modi needs to come out of the mindset that he can bully a Pakistan just because it lags economically and stop being the bully of South Asia.