About the G20 summit in India

The 18th two-day G20 summit in New Delhi concluded as India handed over the bloc presidency to Brazil. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin both skipped the summit.

Even otherwise the domestic situation for Joe Biden and Narendra Modi, the leading personalities, of the summit looks quite troubling as Modi’s party had lost four of seven by-polls in important states to the newly minted opposition alliance including the Indian Congress and Biden’s ratings within his own Democratic party had plunged to forbidding levels.

It was pointed out that it was one of the most difficult G20 summits in the almost twenty-year history of the forum as it took almost 20 days to agree on the declaration before the summit and five days on the spot. It was mentioned that the Ukraine war was the most contentious issue in the negotiations. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has left tens of thousands dead, displaced millions and sown economic turmoil across the world. Moscow, which says it is conducting a special military operation there and denies committing any atrocities.

The difficulties arose not only due to some disagreements on the Ukraine subject but also due to differences in positions on all key issues, primarily the issues of climate change and the transition to low-carbon energy system.

The group adopted a Leaders’ Declaration that avoided condemning Russia for the war but highlighted the human suffering the conflict had caused and called on all states not to use force to grab territory.

The consensus came as a surprise. In the weeks leading to the summit, sharply differing views on the war had threatened to derail the meeting, with Western nations demanding members call out Moscow for the invasion and Russia saying it would block any resolution that did not reflect its position.

The summit also admitted the African Union which includes 55-member states as a permanent member of the G20 underlining the bloc’s inclusivity of more developing countries. Addressing food security concerns, Russia would return to the Black Sea deal that lets Ukraine export grain if Moscow’s demands were met.

Moscow pulled out of the agreement in July over what it called a failure to meet its demands to implement a parallel agreement easing rules for its own food and fertiliser export.The summit document had called for the safe flow of grain, food and fertiliser from both Ukraine and Russia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked the group’s leaders to hold a virtual meeting in November to review progress on policy suggestions and goals announced.

It appears that the G20 summit that recently concluded in New Delhi was aimed at devising a way for amicably settling issues that have already arisen and may arise in future regarding the gradual emergence of multipolarity.

Evidently, the unipolarity era is coming to an end as the reach and relevance of the US is slowly receding and it has not proved an earth-shattering change as was witnessed during the fall of the Soviet Union during the 1990s altering the geo-strategic balance for a long time to come.

The fall of the Soviet Union spelt the end of bipolarity that involved widespread territorial adjustments disrupting the global arena from where it is still coping to recover. The lessons of the end of bipolarity were probably well learnt as it is observed that for maintaining a satisfactory balance after the end of unipolarity, middle powers are brought it to ensure smooth transition to global multipolarity.

The first challenge to the impending multipolarity is the growing economic clout of China that is exploiting its soft power rather dictatorially causing widespread resentment as witnessed by Greek disagreement over and subsequent withdrawal from the BRI deal. The manner in which Greece withdrew manifests the deepening resentment of what is perceived as Chinese hegemonic designs. It is observed that the government of Chinese president Xi is committing a mistake by treating BRI as it treats Chinese domestic situation.

There is already a deep division within the Chinese governance setup that opposes president Xi’s dictatorial style of leadership particularly after he grabbed an unprecedented third term as president, against the laid-down policy of restricting the presidential tenure to two terms. Apparently, the only acceptable way of countering the Chinese alleged ambitions of global dominance was to present an alternate to the BRI that was done in the recently concluded G20 summit.

In this context, the significant aspect of the summit was the proposal floated by America, Saudi Arabia and India pertaining to an infrastructure deal that could reconfigure trade between the Gulf and South Asia, linking Middle Eastern countries by railways and connecting to India by port.

The proposal that has also included the United Arab Emirates and Europe was in the pipeline since months and may be a sweeping, multi-national ports and rail deal would come at a critical time.

To counter China’s BRI global infrastructure push, US President Joe Biden is pitching Washington as an alternative partner for and investor in developing countries at the G20, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. It also comes as the Biden administration seeks a broader diplomatic deal in the Middle East that would have Saudi Arabia recognise Israel.

Actually, the credit for this initiative goes to the Trump presidency particularly Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, a Jew himself, who devoted considerable time and influence to this issue.
Beyond the diplomatic implications it is projected that such an infrastructure deal could reduce shipping times, cost, the use of diesel and make trade faster and cheaper. Saudi Arabia is also in talks with Italy about a potential Saudi investment in Rome’s new strategic fund, with the kingdom focusing on energy, sustainability, supply chains and sport to expand its presence in the country.

The proposed deal will benefit low and middle-income countries in the region and enable a critical role for the Middle East in global commerce. It aims to link Middle East countries by railway and connect them by ports, helping the flow of energy and trade from the Gulf to Europe.

A memorandum of understanding for the deal was set to be signed by the European Union, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the US and other G20 partners. It is expected that the deal helps turn the temperature down across the region.

Interestingly, Ukraine justifiably found copious mention in the G20 joint declaration released but on the other hand, the silence of leaders from Western democracies over what observers point out as creeping fascism in India was palpably resounding.

It was pointed out that the leaders of France, the UK and the US, in particular, indulged Modi at a considerable cost to India. Biden did not have the temerity to even point out the excesses of Modi regime in respect of Indian minorities though he did criticise it in far-away Vietnam.

Away from the sanitised and cordoned venue of the summit, journalists from key G20 countries held a parallel online summit they called M20. It discussed a key element many members battle in their respective backyards the freedom of the press. Even the formidable US media contingent accompanying Joe Biden was surprised to find itself excluded from Modi’s meeting with Biden.