The third season of House of the Dragon takes viewers one step closer to discovering the true conclusion of the Dance of the Dragons. The outcomes for both sides of the Targaryen civil war are already familiar to individuals who have read Fire & Blood.
On the other hand, the power dynamics are changing from season to season for people who only watch the HBO series. They will also have to wait until Season 4 of House of the Dragon to find out who truly ascends the Iron Throne.
Rhaenyra and Aegon II Targaryen remain the front-runners, but they each have formidable obstacles to overcome. Rhaenyra may currently be the most powerful House of the Dragon character, but that is unlikely to persist given the growing dissatisfaction of the nobility and the common people.
Aegon, on the other hand, is trapped outside King’s Landing with divided forces. George R.R. Martin’s source material can provide answers for those who are impatient, but the show will ultimately reveal who wins. The Dance’s result should be about the same on screen, notwithstanding House of the Dragon‘s semi-regular modifications, and it ultimately affects the events of Game of Thrones.
By the end of the Dance, those who were explicitly rooting for Rhaenyra or Aegon in House of the Dragon might be let down. They both die before the conflict is finished, despite being the leaders of the Black and Green factions.
After losing control of King’s Landing and having to escape a rioting populace, Rhaenyra perishes first. The riots compel her to return to Dragonstone without Syrax or available military assistance, which should occur early in Season 4.
Before Rhaenyra returns in Fire & Blood, Aegon stealthily recaptures Dragonstone, and when she arrives, he ensnares her. In Game of Thrones Season 3, Joffrey reveals that Aegon uses his dragon to murder his half-sister. Rhaenyra’s quest comes to a horrific end when Sunfyre burns and consumes her, but the Targaryen civil war is far from over.
Aegon’s reign as king is likewise brief, even after Rhaenyra is eliminated. He returns to King’s Landing, but Rhaenyra’s army is still engaged in combat. The Greens lack adequate fortifications when her soldiers advance on the city. Despite the advice of his advisors, Aegon II refuses to concede. They eventually poison him, which leads to a disastrous conclusion for the Greens as well.
This makes it possible for another person to claim the Iron Throne, solidifying the true winner of the Dance. Aegon III, the eldest son of Rhaenyra and Daemon, succeeds Aegon II as monarch of the Seven Kingdoms. Aegon the Younger’s reign is long-lasting, in contrast to those of his mother and Aegon II. Two of his sons succeed him after he rules for 26 years. After the childless reign of Baelor I comes to an end, Viserys II, Aegon III’s younger brother, eventually takes the throne.
Up until Aerys II Targaryen, who is referred to as the Mad King throughout Game of Thrones, many kings are descended from Viserys II. Rhaenyra prevails in the Dance of the Dragons in this sense, as her descendants continue to rule.
This guarantees that her struggle in House of the Dragon is not completely pointless. The HBO series keeps making references to events in Game of Thrones, which Rhaenyra and Daemon will impact—albeit not as much as they seem to think.
The enemy to the north and the prophecies pertaining to House Targaryen will pose major challenges for their distant successors. Thus, not only does Rhaenyra’s lineage rule Westeros, but it also helps save it.
Although her family wins, House Targaryen as a whole suffers greatly as a result. The Dance of the Dragons ultimately ruins the Targaryen dynasty, even if Rhaenyra’s children go on to rule Westeros.
Few dragons survive the battle, which gradually erodes House Targaryen’s power. In A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, fans witness their declining power firsthand. Just before Game of Thrones, Robert’s Rebellion is able to completely overthrow them due to the absence of dragons.
At the start of the original series, only Viserys and Daenerys are known to be alive, alongside Jon Snow and Maester Aemon in secret. By the end of Game of Thrones, only Jon remains.
It is quite unlikely that he will restore the mighty Targaryen dynasty because he is in exile north of the Wall. As a result, following the Dance, House Targaryen essentially disappears. There is only one dragon left after all of this, so even Daenerys bringing them back isn’t enough to stop their decline.
It could have been prevented, making it all the more tragic. It’s yet another illustration of how narrow-minded the battles for the Iron Throne are in the Game of Thrones universe. Not only do the Blacks and Greens ruin their immediate family in their quest for control, but they also undermine their legacy—even if it takes decades for the full damage to become apparent.