How are the World Cup favourites shaping up?

With the start of the 2026 World Cup in North America now barely three weeks away, AFP Sport runs the rule over the leading contenders at the first-ever 48-team finals (world ranking in brackets):

France (1)

Les Bleus have won the World Cup twice and lost two finals on penalties in the last seven editions. This will be their last tournament before long-serving coach Didier Deschamps steps down. “It’s a strange feeling,” admitted Deschamps, in charge since 2012.

France beat Brazil 2-1 in March and then defeated Colombia 3-1 with an entirely different starting line-up, with those games both played in the US. Unbeaten in nine matches since last June, France have a fearsome attack featuring reigning Ballon d’Or Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Rayan Cherki. They will take some stopping.

Spain (2)

The European champions have not lost since winning Euro 2024. Luis de la Fuente’s team are a perfectly-oiled machine in which the standout player is teenage superstar Lamine Yamal. But the 18-year-old Barcelona winger is currently out with a hamstring injury, and reports suggest he might miss their first two group games.

His Barcelona teammate Fermin Lopez is set to miss out entirely with a foot fracture. Arsenal’s Mikel Merino, scorer of eight goals for Spain in 10 games in 2025, has not played since January due to injury. But La Roja still boast fearsome quality — think 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, or Pedri.

Argentina (3)

Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina are dreaming of retaining the title they won in 2022. That tournament marked Lionel Messi’s crowning glory, and it is hard to see how he can hit the same heights again given he turns 39 next month.

Nevertheless Messi is very much at home in the US now and has 12 goals in 13 MLS games for Inter Miami this year.

Argentina also won the 2024 Copa America in the USA and comfortably topped South American qualifying. Beyond Messi they boast a wealth of attacking talent, including Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, and Nico Paz, the Tenerife-born attacking midfielder with Como.

England (4)

After several near misses under Gareth Southgate, with agonising defeats in the finals of the last two Euros and exits from the 2018 World Cup in the semi-finals and the 2022 quarters, England now hope German Thomas Tuchel can deliver a first title since 1966.

England cruised through qualifying and have formidable depth but there are some doubts. They drew with Uruguay and lost to Japan in March friendlies, while big names like Jude Bellingham and Cole Palmer have not had straightforward campaigns. However, they will hope Harry Kane continues the remarkable form he has shown with Bayern Munich, for whom he has 58 goals this season.

Portugal (5)

Portugal, who have never gone beyond the semi-finals, are serious candidates — provided they are not held back by the possibly overbearing presence of Cristiano Ronaldo.

At 41, this will be his sixth World Cup, but the quality of their midfield –- Vitinha, Joao Neves, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes –- could be the key.

UEFA Nations League winners last year, Portugal stumbled a little in qualifying, losing in Ireland as Ronaldo was sent off. Ronaldo did not play in their last game, a 2-0 friendly win over the USA in Atlanta.

Brazil (6)

Brazil’s progress under new coach Carlo Ancelotti will be fascinating to watch. That the Selecao felt it necessary to turn to an Italian says much about Brazil’s ongoing footballing identity crisis, and their current lack of depth has been exposed by Ancelotti’s decision to name Neymar in his squad.

Now 34 and playing for Santos, Neymar has not been capped since 2023, and Vinicius Junior is Brazil’s attacking leader now.

Since winning their fifth title in 2002, Brazil have only reached the semi-finals once, when they were humiliated 7-1 by Germany as hosts in 2014. They finished fifth in South American qualifying, losing six of 18 games.

“The World Cup won’t be won by a perfect team — because a perfect team doesn’t exist,” insists Ancelotti. “It will be won by the most resilient team.”

Germany (10)

Julian Nagelsmann’s side sit behind the Netherlands, Morocco and Belgium in the rankings and it seems a stretch to suggest Germany could win a first World Cup since 2014.

They suffered group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, and lost in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals as hosts. However, the class of Joshua Kimmich, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz ensure Germany should be taken seriously. AFP