Iranian oil imports may save Pakistan $340mn annually: report

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan could save up to $340 million annually on crude oil imports if international sanctions on Iran are lifted, according to a research report by Topline Securities Ltd.

In its report titled “Pakistan Strategy – What If Iran Sanctions Are Lifted? Implications for Pakistan from a Historical Perspective,” the brokerage house said the restoration of formal trade with Iran could significantly benefit Pakistan by reducing its import bill and expanding bilateral trade.

According to the report, before international sanctions on Iran were tightened in 2012, bilateral trade between the two countries exceeded $1.2 billion in FY2010. Pakistan remained in a trade deficit until FY2011, with the deficit reaching $813 million in FY2010, largely due to higher fuel imports from Iran.

However, the report said, as sanctions intensified, imports from Iran declined sharply. Pakistan’s trade balance turned positive in FY2012 and recorded a surplus of $73 million in FY2013. Since then, formal bilateral trade has virtually ceased.

The report noted that between FY2009 and FY2013, Pakistan exported a wide range of products to Iran, including rice, maize, fruits, vegetables, textiles, pharmaceuticals, surgical instruments, and sports goods. During the same period, Pakistan imported crude oil, coal, hot-rolled steel (HRC), iron and steel scrap, and other industrial raw materials from Iran.

Topline Securities said Pakistan and Iran have already expressed their commitment to increasing bilateral trade to $10 billion through the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) along the border and deeper economic cooperation.

The report recommended that Pakistan could benefit substantially from Iran’s abundant energy resources by signing a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) or a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) if international sanctions are removed.

Pakistan imported nearly $17 billion worth of petroleum products and fuels in 2025. Historically, Iranian crude oil was imported at prices 13 to 17% lower than comparable imports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates between FY2009 and FY2012. Even current market prices show Iranian Light and Iranian Heavy crude grades trading at discounts of around 2–3 percent compared with Saudi crude.

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Assuming Iran offers competitive pricing to regain market share after sanctions are lifted, the report estimates Pakistan could save between $170 million and $340 million annually by sourcing 10 to 20 percent of its petroleum requirements from Iran at a 10 percent discount, including lower freight costs.

The report also highlighted potential savings on industrial imports. Pakistan imported around $4 billion worth of iron and steel products in 2025. Historically, hot-rolled coil (HRC) imported from Iran was approximately 16 percent cheaper than similar imports from China and South Africa.

Based on Pakistan’s HRC import bill of $1.3 billion in 2025, sourcing 10 to 20 percent of its requirements from Iran could generate additional savings of $21 million to $42 million, provided historical price discounts continue.

The report further noted that Iran has recently expressed interest in importing up to 60 percent of its meat requirements from Pakistan, creating another opportunity for Pakistani exporters if trade relations are normalized.

Meanwhile, Minister for National Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain recently said Pakistan would review the possibility of importing oil from Iran once U.S. sanctions on Tehran are lifted. He added that the easing of regional tensions and the restoration of trade could contribute positively to Pakistan’s economic outlook.