NEOC issues GLOF alerts as new westerly wave enters Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: The National Emergency Operations Center (NEOC) of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Wednesday issued multiple impact-based weather alerts in response to intensifying monsoon conditions and the arrival of a fresh westerly wave across the country.

Moist monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea are currently penetrating Sindh and the upper regions of Pakistan, with further intensification expected over central and northern areas until July 25, 2025.

Additionally, a new westerly wave entered upper parts of the country, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides in vulnerable regions.

As a result of these developments, increased water flows are expected in all major rivers — particularly the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, and Kabul.

River Chenab at Marala, Khanki, and Qadirabad may reach low to medium flood levels.

River Jhelum upstream of Mangla and River Kabul at Nowshera are likely to rise to low flood levels.

Inflows at Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, and Guddu Barrages are currently at low flood stage, with a potential increase to medium levels.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Rivers Swat and Panjkora and their tributaries may witness medium to high flows due to persistent rainfall in their catchment areas.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, rising discharges are expected in the Hunza and Shigar Rivers, with a high probability of localized flash flooding in their tributaries, including Hispar, Khunjerab, Shimshal, Braldu, Hushe, and Saltoro.

Balochistan’s stream networks in Musakhel, Sherani, Zhob, and Sibi districts are also forecast to see significant increases in flow.

Currently, Tarbela Dam is at 80% and Mangla Dam at 51% storage capacity, with further inflows expected.

Critically, the combined impact of heavy monsoon rains and accelerated glacier and snowmelt has significantly raised the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in northern valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan and KP. Vulnerable locations include Reshun, Brep, Booni, Sardar Gol, Thalu 1 & 2, Hinarchi, Hundur, Darkut, Badswat, Ishkomen, and Arkari.

These areas face heightened threats of sudden flash flooding, loss of life and property, infrastructure damage, and isolation due to landslides and disrupted road access.