Oil jumps as new US sanctions to curb Russian supply to China, India

Oil prices extended gains for a third session on Monday, with Brent rising above $81 a barrel to its highest in more than four months, as wider U.S. sanctions are expected to affect Russian crude exports to top buyers China and India.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.47, or 1.84%, to $81.23 a barrel by 0503 GMT after hitting an intraday high of $81.49, the highest since Aug. 27.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.55, or 2.02% to $78.12 a barrel after touching a high of $78.39, the most since Oct. 8.

Brent and WTI have risen by more than 6% since Jan. 8, and both contracts surged after the U.S. Treasury imposed wider sanctions on Russian oil on Friday. The new sanctions included producers Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM), opens new tab and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, targeting the revenue Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine.

Russian oil exports will be hurt severely by the new sanctions, pushing China and India, the world’s top and third-largest oil importers respectively, to source more crude from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, which will boost prices and shipping costs, traders and analysts said.

“Friday’s announcement strengthens our view that the risks to our $70-85 Brent range forecast are skewed to the upside in the short term,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

“We estimate that the vessels targeted by the new sanctions transported 1.7mb/d of oil in 2024 or 25% of Russia’s exports, with the vast majority being crude oil.”

Expectations of tighter supplies have also pushed Brent and WTI monthly spreads to their widest backwardation since the third quarter of 2024. Prompt prices are higher than those in future months in backwardation, indicating tight supply.

RBC Capital Markets analysts said the doubling of tankers sanctioned for moving Russian barrels could serve as a major logistical headwind to crude flows.

Many of the tankers named in the latest sanctions have been used to ship oil to India and China as previous Western sanctions and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some of the ships have also moved oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.

“The last round of OFAC (U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control) sanctions targeting Russian oil companies and a very large number of tankers will be consequential in particular for India,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

JPMorgan analysts said Russia had some room to manoeuvre despite the new sanctions, but it would ultimately need to acquire non-sanctioned tankers or offer crude at or below $60 a barrel to use Western insurance as per the West’s price cap.