Can PML-N led government fall if PPP pulls support? an analysis

After spending more than four and a half years together in government in Pakistan, two major coalition partners, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), are standing face to face; the situation creates an ” if and but ” scenario in the political landscape.

Although tensions between the two parties are not new, with previous differences emerging over issues including the Gilgit-Baltistan elections, the latest dispute surrounding the Azad Kashmir (AJK) elections has escalated into a full political confrontation.

The PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has openly criticized the ruling party, signaling a significant deterioration in relations.

Following the first two phases of the AJK election, PML-N has already secured 23 seats out of 45 seats of the legislative assembly and obtained a simple majority in the assembly.

A third phase of voting is scheduled for 10 August 2026, with the party expected to strengthen its position further.

The latest political dispute comes at a time when the federal government is already facing economic and security challenges, and recent public remarks by the interior minister, followed by comments from the Director General of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) regarding shortcomings in governance, have made the situation more critical.

In this situation, the PPP’s increasingly confrontational stance has fueled speculation about the future of the ruling coalition.

The PPP is currently the second-largest party in parliament after PML-N. If it were to withdraw from the governing coalition, would Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government immediately lose power?

A closer look at the parliamentary numbers suggests the answer.

National Assembly:

The National Assembly has a total of 336 seats, with 169 required for a simple majority.

The current ruling coalition commands 244 seats. Of these: PML-N holds 132 seats, PPP has 74, MQM-Pakistan holds 22, Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) has five seats., Independent members hold four, and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) has four seats. Pakistan Muslim League-Zia, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), and Awami National Party (ANP) each hold one seat.

If the PPP leaves the coalition with all 74 of its lawmakers, the government’s strength in the National Assembly would fall to 170 seats.

That would leave the coalition with a narrow majority, just one seat above the 169 required to govern. As a result, the Shehbaz Sharif government would not automatically collapse.

Senate:

In the Upper House, the situation would be markedly different.

The Senate has 96 members, with the governing alliance currently controlling 64 seats. PPP is the largest coalition partner with 26 seats, PML-N holds 20 seats, and the remaining 18 seats belong to MQM-Pakistan, independent senators, BAP, ANP, and other allied parties.

With 64 senators, the coalition currently enjoys a two-thirds majority, enabling it to pass not only ordinary legislation but also constitutional amendments.

However, if the PPP were to withdraw its 26 senators from the alliance, the government’s numbers would fall to just 38 seats.

In this situation, the government would not only lose its two-thirds majority but also a simple majority in the Senate.

If this happens, legislation and government strategy in the Upper House could be severely affected.