Pakistan's Worsening Economic and Political Crisis

Once again, in its short history, Pakistan is today confronted with multiple crises that can jeopardize its existence as an independent and sovereign country.

The economic meltdown, political anarchy and terrorism are the imminent threats that Pakistan has to grapple with on an emergent basis.

The tragedy is that the current rulers have no clear-cut plan and lack the necessary political will to fully focus on countering these threats. They have squandered pretty much one year in dithering and entertaining delusional hopes for foreign financial rescue or countering the rising political fortunes of Imran Khan.

Pakistan has gone through a hell of political polarisation, instability and chaos after the regime change in April 2022. The political tempers across the divide have since remained high with our politicians lunging for each other’s throats.

The mistaken assessment of the establishment and the PDM that Imran Khan would politically finish if ousted from power, has proved fatally wrong. They had a big misunderstanding about his popularity, will, determination and resilience or the disillusionment of the populace with the old political dynasties ruling the country turn by turn since 1970.

Mingling his popularity with the public frustration and disillusionment with the old class of politicians, he emerged as a formidable political force springing up many frustrating surprises for the ruling PDM.

The ruling coalition again misread the mood of the people; falling back on the repulsive strong-arm tactics to subdue him; increasing the political witch-hunt by instituting criminal cases against him and his political aides.

The laws were blatantly abused registering cases under Terrorist Act against the stalwarts of the PTI, including Imran Khan, who faces over 84 criminal cases registered in various police stations all over the country. The superior courts have come under enormous pressure to deal with politically motivated cases upholding the Constitution and fundamental human rights.

All this, as evidenced by our past political history, would not help the PDM corner Imran Khan or bring any political stability to the country. This is what we witnessed in 1970, 1977 and 1999.

Still, there is time for the politicians across the divide to review their rancorous political confrontation in the wider national interests. There is no way out of this political deadlock except to have general elections to hand over power to the party with a fresh public mandate. Any prolongation of the current political uncertainty will endanger democracy and imperil our Federation.

The PDM regime’s blunders rather than the political instability have been hampering its efforts to avert the precipitous economic meltdown staring the country in the face. The change of command in the Finance Ministry was a blunder.

The delusional confidence of the incumbent minister to have his way in the talks with the IMF was yet another blunder. However, the IMF bailout would be a temporary relief providing no remedy for our chronic economic vulnerability.

Our chronic dependence on loans and economic aid from friendly countries has weakened our resolve to undertake structural changes in our economy and drastically cut the non-developmental expenditures–grossly disproportionate to our revenues.

Unfortunately, there seems to be no resolve on the part of the PDM regime to undertake economic structural reforms while shifting the bug to the previous PTI regime. The oversized cabinet, which consumes some Rs.200 billion remains untouched with the perks and subsidies of the elite intact.

There is no proposal of widening the tax network and imposing income tax on big landlords, expensive legal chambers, thriving private medical practices and any plan to dispose of sick public sector enterprises incurring huge losses.

The PDM leadership is shy of adopting robust economic changes in the fear of losing political ground. The increase in utility charges and prices of petroleum products under IMF demand has already triggered an unprecedented wave of inflation and made it impossible for the majority of the populace to provide three modest meals to their families.

We would have no way out of this chronic economic crisis except that our political leaders hold back their political ambitions and quarrels and chart out a plan for economic rehabilitation with a robust system of accountability to curb the menace of corruption. The plan should be religiously followed by every incoming regime for at least two decades.

The recent spate of terrorist attacks by TTP poses an existential security threat to Pakistan. The chronic policy failures in Afghanistan have brought us to this pass shattering our hopes erroneously pinned on the Afghan Taliban. It has now become clear that the Afghan Taliban have their own strategic compulsions and security limitations and would not confront the TTP. Our policy on Afghanistan needs pragmatic review in light of the changed security situation.

We cannot afford to have a confrontationist policy on Afghanistan. We are historically, geographically and culturally bound to have functional, if not friendly, relations with Afghanistan treating it as an independent and sovereign country and implementing historic agreements between the two countries in a spirit of good neighbourliness.

We should not forget that no security force can fight a cunning enemy of the ilk of TTP without full public support. The ongoing political rancour within the country has unfortunately hurt the image and standing of the security forces in the public.

The new military leadership would take some time to clear the haze surrounding the role of the security forces in the current political impasse. Politicians should avoid dragging the security forces into their political wrangling. They should not forget the economic strength, military power and independent judiciary underwrite the physical existence of a country.

We need a holistic approach to deal with these imminent threats to our dear country Pakistan. It is time to come out of our slumber.

The enemies are waiting in the wings or rather ready to pounce on us. The political leadership from the bigger province more than the politicians from smaller provinces would be in the dock of history if something bad happens to this country.

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