Rising fuel prices lash airline sector as Iran conflict widens

Airline shares diverged on Thursday as signs of a tentative restart in Middle East flying lifted some Asian carriers, while U.S. and European airlines ‌slipped as oil prices jumped after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted global aviation.

Governments have scrambled to organise flights out of the Middle East for tens of thousands of citizens stranded by the escalating conflict, which has closed most of the region’s airspace because of the risk of missile strikes.

Takeoffs from Dubai International Airport more than doubled on Wednesday, the latest data from Flightradar24 show, as activity slowly restarts at the world’s busiest travel hub, which was ​brought to a near standstill amid the conflict.

Traffic remains far below normal levels, with global aviation disruption likely to take some time to normalize as the conflict shows ​little sign of easing. Air cargo has also been hit, disrupting the movement of perishables and aircraft parts.

“The past few days have been unprecedented,” Dubai ⁠Airports CEO Paul Griffiths said on Thursday on LinkedIn in his first public remarks since the airstrikes began, adding that teams were pulling together and “navigating with confidence”.

AIRLINE SHARES MIXED

Azerbaijan – part of a ​key flight corridor between Asia and Europe – temporarily closed part of its airspace near Iran after a drone strike in the southern Nakhchivan area near the Iranian border. Flights appeared to continue further north, according ​to Flightradar24 tracking.

Airline stocks have been hammered since the initial strikes last weekend on fears of prolonged route closures and higher fuel costs.

Jet fuel prices have soared globally, hitting an all-time high in Singapore on concerns over supply disruption, S&P Global Platts said on Thursday.

U.S. airlines have limited exposure to Middle East routes, and the conflict has not forced the kind of network shutdowns affecting Gulf-based carriers. But higher fuel prices pose a risk to ​balance sheets.

Fuel is typically U.S. airlines’ second‑largest expense after labor, and many of them no longer hedge, leaving them more vulnerable to price spikes.

Shares of Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, ​United Airlines and Alaska Air Group were down between 5% and 8% by midday.

In Europe, Air France KLM turned lower, while Lufthansa, British Airways-owned IAG and budget carrier Ryanair fell. Wizz Air which flagged a $58 ‌million hit to ⁠profits from the conflict, tumbled 9%.

Wizz Air’s CEO told Reuters the financial hit should be limited to its current financial year that ends this month and said that the firm was shifting its capacity towards Europe.

Some Asian stocks rebounded. Cathay Pacific Airways, Qantas Airways and Korean Air Lines rose, while Japan Airlines edged down.

Major Chinese carriers such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines fell between 1.5% and 4% in both Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis, said Asian airlines were sensitive to Iran’s situation given the impact on routes, revenue and ​costs.

REPATRIATION FLIGHTS RAMP UP

Emirates and Etihad are now ​operating limited services from Dubai and Abu ⁠Dhabi through safe air corridors. An Emirates spokesperson said more than 100 flights should depart from Dubai with passengers and cargo on Thursday and Friday.

Qatar Airways said it would run limited relief flights from Thursday for stranded passengers, departing from Muscat in Oman to six European destinations including London, ​Berlin and Rome as well as from Riyadh to Frankfurt.

Governments from the U.S. to Canada and across Europe have arranged charter flights and helped ​secure seats on commercial services ⁠to repatriate citizens. More than 17,500 Americans have returned to the U.S. since February 28.

A flight carrying Kenyans and others fleeing the UAE arrived in Nairobi on Thursday, including 13 children and their teachers who had been on a school trip to the Gulf.

“We were stuck there for five days … it was scary, every day we would get alerts and the children would just lose it,” school director Olive ⁠Tindika told Reuters, ​saying the children arrived in tears at teachers’ hotel rooms whenever explosions lit up the sky.

“It was a very, ​very traumatising experience.”