Strait of Hormuz disruption risks oil price surge

Goldman Sachs flagged risks to global energy supply amid concerns over a potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz that would lead to significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices, the bank said in a note dated Sunday.

The bank estimated Brent crude could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month and remained down by 10% for the following 11 months.

Prices would then moderate, with Brent averaging around $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, it said in a note.

Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January after Washington joined Israel over the weekend in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Goldman highlighted that prediction markets, despite limited liquidity, now reflect a 52% probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, citing data from Polymarket.

Additionally, it noted that a drop in Iranian supply by 1.75 million barrels per day could push Brent to a peak of around $90 per barrel.

In one scenario, the bank said a 1.75 million barrels per day (bpd) drop in Iranian oil supply for six months, followed by gradual recovery, could push Brent crude to peak at $90 per barrel before falling to the $60s by 2026.

In the second sub-scenario, where Iranian production remains persistently lower, Brent could still peak at $90 but stabilize between $70-80 in 2026 due to reduced inventories and global spare capacity, Goldman Sachs said.

“While the events in the Middle East remain fluid, we think that the economic incentives, including for the U.S. and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong,” Goldman Sachs said.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision on whether to close the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. bombing raids, Iran’s Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament was reported to have backed the measure.
Goldman Sachs also projected European natural gas markets, including the TTF benchmark, to price in a higher probability of disruption, with TTF potentially rising closer to 74 euros per megawatt-hour ($25/MMBtu).

However, the bank noted that U.S. natural gas prices would face limited impacts due to structural factors such as strong export capacity and minimal domestic LNG import needs.