Sydney Sweeney dethroned: Qualley now leads Bond girl bets

The race to become the next Bond girl is heating up, and a new name has surged to the top. Margaret Qualley has overtaken Sydney Sweeney in online prediction markets for Bond 26, the first James Bond film under Amazon MGM Studios and director Denis Villeneuve.

What the Latest Bond Girl Odds Say

According to prediction market Kalshi, Qualley now leads with a 36% chance to land the coveted role, up from 17% in early May. Sweeney, who held the #1 spot last month at 25%, has slipped to third at 22%. Anya Taylor-Joy sits between them at 24%.

Current Kalshi Bond Girl Odds:

Margaret Qualley – 36%

Anya Taylor-Joy – 24%

Sydney Sweeney – 22%

Florence Pugh – 13%

Ana de Armas – 10%

Lily James – 10%

Zendaya – 3%

Other names under 1% include Jodie Comer, Alicia Vikander, and Hunter Schafer. The odds shift weekly, and no casting is confirmed.

Why Margaret Qualley Is Rising Fast

Critical Momentum: The two-time Golden Globe nominee earned raves for The Substance and performed a James Bond medley at the 2025 Oscars, sparking speculation she’s already tied to the franchise.

Villeneuve Fit: Prediction site Covers noted Villeneuve “favors prestige casting,” and Qualley’s “cool indie aura” fits the director’s Dune and Blade Runner 2049 pedigree.

Physicality: Known for intense, physical roles in The Substance and Maid, Qualley could handle the action demands of a Bond film.

Sydney Sweeney Still a Major Contender

Sweeney remains a fan-favorite choice. The Euphoria and White Lotus star is a trained MMA fighter with kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu experience, plus action credits in Madame Web and the upcoming boxing biopic Christy. She’s addressed the rumors, telling Variety: “Depends on the script. I think I’d have more fun as James Bond”. Director Paul Feig, who worked with her on The Housemaid, also backed her to play 007 herself.

What We Know About _Bond 26_

New Era: Amazon MGM Studios took creative control in February 2025 after a $20M deal with Eon Productions.

Director: Denis Villeneuve will helm after finishing Dune: Part Three, which releases December 18, 2026.

Script: Peaky Blinders creator Steven Knight is writing.

Timeline: Casting is expected in 2027 ahead of a rumored 2028 release.

007 Role: The search for the next James Bond actor remains open, with no front-runner confirmed.

Other Names in the Mix

Bookmakers have also floated Kendall Jenner at 1/2 odds with Coral and Aimee Lou Wood rising to 8/1 after The White Lotus. Florence Pugh and Zendaya sit at 12% on Kalshi, though Pugh’s Marvel schedule may conflict.

Bottom Line: Prediction markets are not official casting, but they reflect momentum. Margaret Qualley’s rise shows how fast buzz can shift. With Villeneuve directing and Amazon rebooting the franchise post-Daniel Craig, the next Bond girl will join one of cinema’s most-watched castings.