United Airlines reports recovery in bookings and pricing power

July 17, 2025: United Airlines executives said on Thursday the company has seen strong bookings in the past three weeks, with the carrier gaining pricing power for the first time since February.

If the trend continues, they expect the company’s revised full-year profit estimate would prove to be conservative.

On Wednesday, the Chicago-based carrier forecast an adjusted 2025 profit in the range of $9 to $11 per share.

“Demand feels to us like it has inflected upward and is returning toward the normal trend line,” CEO Scott Kirby told analysts on an earnings call.

The upbeat commentary drove up the company’s shares 3% higher in mid-day trade. Shares of rivals Delta Air (DAL.N), American Airlines (AAL.O) and Alaska Airlines (ALK.N) also rose.

In April, United took an unusual step of offering two different earnings forecasts as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war dented consumer and business confidence, making it harder for carriers to predict their business.

Kirby said while demand stabilized after the pullback in March and April, it finished the first half about 5 percentage points weaker than the airline’s original estimate.

Passage of Trump’s tax and spending bill and improvements in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have boosted the travel demand outlook, he said.

While there is still little clarity on the tariff front, Kirby said most businesses now have a much better plan to deal with it.

“As uncertainty has declined, we’ve seen an improvement in book revenue, including a double-digit acceleration in business demand,” he said.

United executives said the industry’s efforts to slash unprofitable flights would boost airfares in the second half of the year.

Kirby likened the situation to last year when reduced supply of airline seats drove up ticket prices, fueling a rally in airline stocks.

“From a supply perspective, it’s deja vu all over again,” he said. “This is almost the exact same setup that we had a year ago.”

Still, Kirby expects United and rival Delta to generate the bulk of the industry’s profits this year, thanks to a diversified revenue stream, including premium cabins.

United’s premium cabin revenue was up 6% in the second quarter from a year ago. The gap in premium and non-premium passenger revenue per available seat mile was 6 percentage points.

Encouraged by the results, company officials said they plan to further ramp up investments in premium products and capacity in coming years