US tariffs hit less than expected: European development bank

LONDON: The economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs was “much lower” than expected last year, Europe’s development bank said Thursday, as it raised its growth forecast for 2026.

The US Supreme Court last week struck down much of Trump’s tariff policy, prompting him to impose a new 10-percent duty under a different law, which he has vowed to raise to 15 percent.

But for countries where the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development operates, these developments will only bring “very limited” changes, chief economist Beata Javorcik told AFP.

The EBRD was founded in 1991 to help former Soviet bloc nations embrace free-market economies, before extending its reach to the Middle East, North Africa and parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

“The impact of the US tariffs for our countries of operation has been limited, much lower than anticipated,” Javorcik said.

In its latest report released on Thursday, the EBRD forecast growth to accelerate to 3.6 percent this year and rise further to 3.7 percent in 2027.

“There are some countries that potentially could gain to see lower tariffs, like Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova or Tunisia, but overall the picture is unchanged,” Javorcik said.

She cautioned that “we have not felt the full impact of tariffs yet,” as a large share of 2025 exports reached US markets before the measures took effect.

The EBRD also said that the artificial intelligence boom has boosted US imports of technology-related goods, including semiconductors.

This could benefit countries in Central Europe, the Baltics, Bulgaria and Romania that export these types of products, Javorcik said.