When will humans go extinct? New study estimates timeline for humanity’s end

What’s more disturbing for humans than the thought of being extinct in the universe. The researchers in a recent yet controversial breakthrough have predicted the timeline when humanity could go extinct.

The statistical formula is based on the “doomsday argument” earlier introduced by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter. It is a probabilistic theory that uses the “Copernican principle”, the idea that humans are not in a unique or special position in history.

Therefore, it is possible that they are living at a random point in the human timeline, rather than an unusually early one.

The formula starts with an estimate that roughly 117 billion people have lived throughout human history. The theory suggests a 95 percent confidence interval that we are not in the first 5 percent of all humans who will ever exist.

Because 100 percent is 20 times larger than five percent so by multiplying 117 billion by 20, researchers estimate a maximum of 2.34 trillion total humans. Based on current birth rates, the theory suggests that this total population threshold could be reached in roughly 17,100 years.

It means that there is a 95 percent chance that humans would become extinct within the next 17,100 years and the reason could be anything ranging from nuclear war, climate change, pandemic and some other catastrophe.

However, this theory is highly controversial and rejected by various scientists because the model ignores complex variables like technological advancement, shifting birth rates and space colonization.

Even proponents view it as a statistical limit rather than a predictive certainty.

In May, another study from the University of Milan surfaced, suggesting the human population could crash by 2064.

As per researchers, this is not the real forecast but an “illustrative mathematical scenario” demonstrating the sensitivity of population dynamics.