KARACHI: Iranian Rial is still in demand in Pakistan as casual investors and currency dealers are still buying it. Though the interbank rate is still almost the same as one Iranian Rial fetches about 0.0002 Pakistani Rupees (PKR). In the open market, 1 crore Iranian Rial is currently selling for approximately PKR 6000 to PKR 7500, a little lesser than 8000 to 10,000 earlier this month.
Driven by speculation of a future currency rebound, a growing legion of Pakistani purchasers have been snapping up the devalued Iranian currency, despite its past global underperformance.
A glance at how the Iranian currency is doing against a universal yardstick – namely the greenback, where a US dollar can buy more than 1.37 million Rials on the global markets. But in Iran’s real, open market the ‘king dollar’ commands far higher – more than 1.6 million Rials as of late.
The difference between the rates the state encourages and the rates people in reality use – leads to extreme price fluctuations and creates arbitrage opportunities – for those in regional markets, that dont exist with other currency types.
Iranian Rial: The next big investment or a risky bet?
Most recently, Chairman of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan Malik Bostan explained the sudden surge in the Iranian Rial’s value, tracing its roots back to 2016 when President Obama partially lifted sanctions on Iran. At that time, 10 million Iranian Rials jumped from PKR 10,000–12,000 to PKR 60,000. Investors expected it to hit PKR 100,000—and it would have, had the Trump administration not re-imposed sanctions in 2018.
He noted that a similar pattern is playing out now. Prior to the conflict on February 28, a brief ceasefire with the US pushed the value of 10 million Rials to PKR 10,000–13,000. When the deal fell through, it crashed back to PKR 2,000. However, following the recent signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries, the rate has rebounded to PKR 4,000.
According to Bostan, investors now believe that as sanctions ease and Iran regains access to its frozen assets, the value could rocket back to PKR 60,000 or even PKR 100,000. This speculation is driving the current wave of investment, mostly fueled by small-scale investors.
However, he warned that investing in the Rial carries binary risks. If negotiations fail and conflict resumes, it could plummet back to PKR 2,000. Conversely, if a definitive agreement is reached, it could realistically hit PKR 60,000 to PKR 100,000.
Bostan advised retail buyers to stick strictly to short-term plays rather than long-term holds. He recommended buying at the current rate and selling as soon as it touches PKR 6,000 or PKR 8,000 to lock in a 100% profit. Warning against greed and overexposure, he urged investors not to risk large sums, suggesting a cap of PKR 10,000 to PKR 100,000 max.