NEW YORK/LONDON: The US Dollar (USD) touched the closely watched 150 level against the yen on Friday after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5% late on Thursday as investors positioned for the Federal Reserve to hold rates higher for longer.
A move above 150 is seen in the market has having the potential to spur an intervention by Japanese monetary officials concerned about the currency weakening too far.
It reached 150.165 on Oct. 3 before rallying back to 147.3, but market participants say it is not clear whether the move resulted from an intervention by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) or was caused by market nerves, a trade stop loss or other automated trades being triggered.
“The market is obviously very mindful that the 150 threshold that we’re close to again this morning is a potential precursor for the uncertainty of having the MOF on the other side of it,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 currency strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.
Analysts say that the speed of the move and how far it goes above 150 will also likely influence whether the Ministry of Finance steps in.
The dollar was last up 0.09% on the day at 149.91 yen .
The dollar rally has stalled since the index hit a 10-month high on Oct. 3, which some analysts have said may be because the number of investors holding dollars has become crowded.
Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto, said that the potential for MOF intervention was limiting further gains.
“I think the
dollar would otherwise be stronger if not for the threat of intervention from Japanese monetary officials,” he said. “Given fixed income and equities, the dollar should be stronger than it this week and I think it’s just a matter of time until it materializes.”
The index was last at 106.22, up 0.03% on the day. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.0579.
The dollar eased on Thursday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said rising market interest rates could reduce the need for action by the central bank.
The odds of a Fed hike in December have dropped to 20%, from 39% before Powell’s comments, while a November pause is seen as a sure thing, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool. But the U.S. central bank is not expected to begin cutting rates until June.
Investors are also watching the Middle East for any indications of an escalation in the war between Israel and Hamas.
The Swiss franc hit an almost six-week high against the greenback earlier on Friday, before falling back to last trade at 0.8923. The Swiss currency has been a popular safe haven as a result of rising geopolitical tensions.
The Swissie also hit its highest against the euro since 2015, when the Swiss National Bank scrapped its peg between the two currencies.
Elsewhere, the pound fell to a five-month low against the euro after a series of data releases showed a collapse in British consumer confidence in October following weak retail sales the month before.
Sterling was last up 0.05% against the dollar at $1.2145.
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