COVID-19 to result in 3% GDP contraction in 2020

Two-thirds of alternative fund managers expect GDP to shrink by at least 3% in their focus markets this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, a global survey showed on Thursday.

The fund managers in the survey by consultants Duff & Phelps also expect the pandemic, which has locked down economies across the world, to continue to weigh on economies in 2021.

Fifty-five percent see a 0.5% contraction next year in regions where they invest, with the rest seeing a deeper contraction.

The pandemic “has had a paralysing effect on nearly all sectors, with very few market participants unscathed,” the survey said.

“This poses a significant conundrum for the investment community in terms of how to navigate the crisis, protect investors and even identify opportunities.”

Forty-seven percent of the fund managers, who specialise in riskier asset classes such as private equity and private debt, predicted their assets’ sale prices would not have recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2021.

The 118 respondents were mainly focused on markets in North America and western Europe.

The survey was conducted between April 3 and April 16.