Gold set for weekly fall as US rate cut hopes ebb

Gold drifted higher on Friday buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar, but was set to log its biggest weekly decline in six after the Federal Reserve countered wider market expectations of an early interest rate cut.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,028.97 per ounce by 0956 GMT but was down nearly 1% so far in the week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,031.30.

“The longer-term price outlook is positive for gold,” said independent analyst Ross Norman, adding that gains are deferred as markets try to get a handle on the likely U.S. rate cuts and the likely trajectory of the dollar and gold.

The dollar index, dipped 0.1% but was up nearly 1% for the week so far. A stronger dollar makes greenback-denominated gold more expensive for foreign currency holders.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Thursday said he was open to lower rates sooner than anticipated depending on how quickly inflation falls, but the baseline was for cuts to start in the third quarter.

Traders now expect about a 55% chance of a rate cut in March, down from 71% last week, according to CME’s Fed Watch Tool.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

“Modest gains (in gold) also came amid simmering geopolitical tensions, which boosted flows into safe-haven assets,” Frank Watson, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said in a note.

Spot silver gained 0.3% to $22.80 per ounce but was down about 1.5% for the week so far.
“As long as the correction in interest rate cut expectations continues, gold and silver are likely to remain on the back foot,” Commerzbank said in a note.