Hungary's opposition leader 'optimistic' after final opinion polls put his party in lead

Hungary’s opposition Tisza party could win Sunday’s national election, two surveys showed, delivering a landmark defeat to veteran Prime Minister Viktor ‌Orban, an ally of Russia who also had the strong support of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The polls, the last ones conducted before voting started and published after polling stations had closed on Sunday, showed the upstart centre-right Tisza party of Peter Magyar garnering 55-57% support, ahead of Orban’s nationalist Fidesz party.

This could give Tisza 135 seats in the 199-member Hungarian legislature, pollster Median said. Pollster 21 ​Research Centre projected that Tisza could win 132 mandates.

Some of these last-minute polls – conducted before an election but only published after voting ends – have proven accurate ​in Hungary in the past. There are no exit polls for Sunday’s election.

“We have seen the fresh polls and based on ⁠the turnout data and information that we received we are optimistic,” Magyar told a briefing.

However, Orban’s chief of staff Gergely Gulyas said Fidesz was confident of ​winning a majority after what he said had been a democratic vote.

HIGH TURNOUT

Pollsters predicted a record voter turnout. Data at 1500 GMT showed 74.23% of voters had ​cast their votes, up from 62.92% at the same time in the 2022 election. Hungarian television showed long queues outside some voting stations in Budapest.

Official results are due later on Sunday evening.

If the opinion poll findings prove accurate, Orban’s defeat after 16 years in power would have significant implications not only for Hungary but for the European Union, Ukraine and beyond.

It ​would likely spell an end to Hungary’s adversarial role inside the EU, possibly opening the way for a 90-billion-euro ($105 billion) EU loan to war-battered Ukraine that Orban had blocked. It could ​also mean the eventual release of EU funds to Hungary that the bloc had suspended due to what Brussels said was Orban’s erosion of democratic standards.

Orban’s exit would deprive Russian ‌President Vladimir ⁠Putin of his main ally in the EU and send shockwaves through right-wing circles across the West, including Trump’s White House.

In Hungary, a Tisza victory could open the way for reforms that the party says would aim to combat corruption and restore the independence of the judiciary and other institutions.

However, the extent of such reforms will depend on whether Tisza can secure the two-thirds constitutional majority it would need to reverse much of Orban’s legacy.

ECONOMIC STAGNATION HURT ORBAN’S SUPPORT

Orban, a eurosceptic, carved out ​a model of a an “illiberal democracy” seen ​as a blueprint by Trump’s Make ⁠America Great Again (MAGA) movement and its admirers in Europe.

But many Hungarians have grown increasingly weary of Orban, 62, after three years of economic stagnation and soaring living costs as well as reports of oligarchs close to the government amassing more ​wealth.

Tisza’s leader Magyar appears to have successfully tapped into this frustration.

Casting his vote for Tisza in the Hungarian capital, ​Mihaly Bacsi, 27, ⁠said the country needed change.

“We need an improvement in public mood, there is too much tension in many areas and the current government only fuels these sentiments,” he said.

Another voter, who gave her name as Zsuzsa, said she wanted continuity.

“I would really like if all the results that have been achieved in recent years remain – and ⁠I am ​terribly afraid of the war,” she said, referring to the conflict raging in Ukraine, Hungary’s eastern ​neighbour.

Orban sought to cast Sunday’s election as a choice between “war and peace”. During campaigning, the government blanketed the country with signs warning that Magyar would drag Hungary into Russia’s war with Ukraine, ​something he strongly denies.