General elections have a corrective mechanism if held in a fair and transparent manner. The voters of India awarded two powerful terms to Prime Minister Narendra Modi from 2014-2024 but cut him to size in the recent general elections.
Not only his Bharatia Junta Party (BJP) was denied simple majority, he himself survived by a thin margin in his constituency of Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh) where his party received a severe electoral blow trailing behind Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and electoral alliance – INDIA. However, with the help of his coalition partners, he has been sworn in as Prime Minister for the third term which is a record achievement in the electoral history of India.
Narendra Modi started his election campaign with a great hope. He expected voters to give him the overwhelming majority of over 400 constituencies but his slogan “this time beyond 400” did not work. The voters had different priorities and were not impressed by his political gimmicks. Throughout his electioneering, he squandered his time and energy in bashing Pakistan, passing derogatory remarks about Muslims, making ridiculously false claims that the opponent alliance – India would take their gold and jewellery to hand over to Pakistan. He was shy of dwelling on the burning issues of inflation, unemployment, poverty alleviation, growing communal tension which the voters of the lower- and middle-class population were concerned with.
In his third term, Prime Minister Modi would not be able to pass divisive legislation without support by his coalition partners who don’t subscribe with many of his political ideals motivated by religious bias and communalism prejudicial to secular identity of India. The opposition alliance – INDIA has returned to the Parliament with a renewed strength and would be able to exercise some sobering impact on the ruling coalition restraining it from any controversial legislation that causes further political, social and communal fissures within the society. Even, Modi’s parent organization, Rashtria Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), for unfathomable reasons, was not seen influencing and swinging the electoral exercise in favour of the BJP.
The defeat of the party’s candidate in Ayodhya, the birthplace of BJP’s political ascendancy, came as a rude shock to Modi and his colleagues. So, one can safely presume that Prime Minister Modi, in his diluted third term, would not be able to follow his earlier political arbitrariness and the divisive communal politics.
So much so far is the electoral corrective impact on the internal politics of India. How far this eroded mandate will restrain Narendra Modi in his aggressive policy on Kashmir and Pakistan-bashing is a matter of conjecture. However, by appointing S Jaishankar as the Foreign Minister and Ajit Doval as his Advisor on the National Security, Modi has signalled the continuity of his foreign and security policy. Though our leadership was very conciliatory in their felicitations sent to Modi on his assumption of the office of Prime Minister for the third time, the Indian leader did not show any apparent enthusiasm for the restoration of relations between the two countries.
In a dangerous attempt to strengthen his electoral prospective, Narendra Modi, using the false flag Pulwama terrorist event, had almost driven the two nuclear states to the brink of a disastrous war in February 2019. The Sub-continent was saved from this catastrophe by the restraint exercised by Pakistan in its retaliation to the air attack on Balakot by India. After his electoral win, Modi arbitrarily abrogated the Kashmir-specific Constitutional clause 370 and 50-A annexing Kashmir into the Indian Union. Pakistan, as a mark of protest, withdrew its Ambassador from New Delhi. India followed the suit. The diplomatic presence in each other’s capital was reduced; bilateral trade stopped or reduced to the bare minimum; tension along the LoC heightened.
The bilateral relations between the two countries have since been in a state of stagnation and antagonism. The existing tension between the two countries is badly impacting the regional security and economic prosperity. Both nuclear states have abject poverty ranging over 45%. The Indian defence expenditure was estimated at $67billion in 2023 marking an increase of 10% over the previous budgetary year. This figure would be maintained in the new fiscal year. The Indian foreign and security policy mandarins have taken full advantage of Pakistan’s growing internal security, economic and political situation driving home their narrative of conditioning the restoration of normal diplomatic relation with cessation of “across the border terrorism”. They have also used their political and economic weight to undermine its bilateral relations with the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan and Iran, fuelling insurgency in Balochistan and financing terrorist organizations based in Afghanistan.
Since the ouster of the PTI regime, the Pakistani leadership has publicly expressed their desire to normalize relations between the two countries resuming bilateral trade and reappointing Ambassadors in both capitals. The Modi Sarkar, in his previous hubris, was unwilling to consider any such proposal from Pakistan.
Today, the political conditions in India look different. Modi does not enjoy invulnerability to political pressure by the sane elements in his coalition government and the electoral alliance – India. The main party of this alliance has a history of maintaining functional relations with Pakistan to avoid any accidental flare up. The last government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had gone an extra mile to improve relations between the two countries notwithstanding the unfortunate terrorist attacks on the Taj Mahal hotel.
The diplomacy, being the first defence line of a state, is a continuous process exploring ways and means to lower tensions among states. While hoping that Narendra Modi may be willing to review his earlier aggressive policy towards Pakistan and agree to resume bilateral contacts between the two countries, we should concentrate on setting our house in order.
The continuous internal political instability, economic crisis and the aggravating security situation within our borders undermine our position at the regional and international levels. While our leadership has shown flexibility to better our relations with neighbour, they seem to be inflexible to reconcile with their political opponents within the country.
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