Oil edges lower on US tariff uncertainty and US-Iran talks

LONDON: Oil prices moved slightly lower on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of potential conflict, while President Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures created uncertainty for global growth and fuel demand.

Brent crude futures were down 45 cents, or 0.6%, at $71.31 a barrel by 1027 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 42 cents, or also 0.6%, to $66.06.

Growing concern over potential military conflict between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent and WTI prices up more than 5% last week, with Brent still close to six-month highs.

“With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down import tariffs and the subsequent reaction from the government,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it would halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday. However, Trump said on Saturday that he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on U.S. imports from all countries, the maximum allowed under the law, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff programme.

“The tariff news over the weekend has resulted in some risk-aversion flows this morning, which can be viewed in the price of gold and U.S. equity futures, and this is weighing on the crude oil price,” said IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters ahead of Thursday’s third round of nuclear talks between the two nations.

“This morning’s weakness is a defensive move, and needless to say, with the uncertainty surrounding a U.S. military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and now the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision, oil price direction is not (clear), but volatility is guaranteed,” PVM’s Varga said.

Mexican authorities this week raided a tunnel used to steal fuel from a state-owned pipeline.

While prices on paper had moved higher, softer prompt spreads and weaker physical differentials pointed to pricing being based on geopolitical concerns rather than an actual lack of oil in the market, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.

The bank now expects Brent at $62.50 a barrel in the second quarter of this year, down from a previous projection of $57.50.