Oil falls for 4th day on expectations Russia-Ukraine peace may lift supply

Oil prices fell for a fourth day on Monday on expectations a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could ease sanctions disrupting supply flows and on concerns that global tariff wars could slow economic growth and weaken energy demand.

Brent crude futures slid 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $74.59 a barrel by 0112 GMT. Brent has slumped 3.1% in the past four sessions after U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration officials announced they had begun discussions with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.51 a barrel, down 23 cents, or 0.3%. WTI is down 3.8% over the past four sessions, and earlier on Monday dropped to as low as $70.12, its lowest since December 30.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believes he could meet “very soon” with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

His comments come as the United States and Russia are preparing for initial talks in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said on Sunday Ukraine and Europe would be part of any “real negotiations” to end Moscow’s war, signalling that US talks with Russia this week were a chance to see how serious Putin is about peace.

“Markets are down on the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and potential sanction relief on Moscow,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

“Concerns over an economic slowdown from tariff wars, driven by Trump’s actions, are also weighing on prices,” he said, predicting WTI to trade between $66-$76 for a while as further declines in oil prices could curb US oil production.

Sanctions by the US and European Union on Russian oil exports have curbed its shipments and disrupted seaborne oil supply flows. Lifting the sanctions in the event of a peace deal should boost global energy supplies.

The risk of a global trade war is also pressuring prices after Trump last week ordered commerce and economic officials to study reciprocal tariffs against countries that place tariffs on US goods and to return their recommendations by April 1.

US energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for a third week in a row for the first time since December 2023, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab said in its closely followed report on Friday.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by two to 588 in the week to February 14.