Oil rises as markets assess supply risk after Iran denies US talks

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Tuesday on ​supply fear, as Iran denied it had talks with the United States to end the war in the ‌Gulf, contradicting U.S. President Donald Trump who said a deal could be reached soon.

Brent futures rose $2.89, or 2.9%, to $102.83 a barrel at 0710 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $2.49, or 2.8%, to $90.62.

Crude futures dropped more than 10% on Monday, after Trump ordered a five-day delay to ​attacks on Iran’s power plants, saying the U.S. had talks with unnamed Iranian officials that produced “major points of ​agreement”.

“By shelving the plan to strike Iranian power plants for five days, the U.S. effectively sucked ⁠much of the ‘war premium’ from the oil price,” said KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer.

“Today’s moderate bounce is ​just the market finding its footing in the mud. Traders are aware that while the missiles are on hold, the Strait ​of Hormuz is still far from a clear waterway.”

The war has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. However, two tankers bound for India sailed through the strait on Monday.

Tehran rejected the claim of contact ​with Washington, dismissing it as an attempt to manipulate financial markets, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked U.S. ​targets and denounced Trump’s comments as “worn-out psychological operations”.

“Even with a possible decrease in tensions after (Monday’s) announcement from President Trump, we expect a ‌price floor ⁠of $85–$90 and a natural drift back to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz is restored,” Macquarie said in a client note.

If the strait remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could still reach $150 a barrel, Macquarie said.

In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were hit in the ​Iranian city of Isfahan, while ​a projectile struck a gas ⁠pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr, Iran’s Fars news agency reported.

To ease supply shortage, the U.S. temporarily waived sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. Industry sources said ​traders have since offered Iranian crude to Indian refiners at a premium to ICE Brent.

The ​International Energy Agency ⁠Executive Director Fatih Birol on Monday said the agency is consulting Asian and European governments on possible further releases of strategic reserves “if necessary”.

Still, markets are bracing for market disruption at least until April, which continue to be a tailwind beneath Brent while maintaining ⁠momentum for ​inflation, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

Oil executives ​and energy ministers at a conference in Houston flagged the longer-term impact of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran on the global economy. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris ​Wright downplayed the crisis.