The S-400 Fell, Rafales Tumbled: A First-Hand Account of India's Strategic Defeat

As an observer who has long watched the strategic chessboard of South Asia, I can say with conviction that recent days have not just seen skirmishes; they have marked a fundamental shift, a stark redrawing of our regional power dynamics. When India chose the path of aggression, launching an offensive, the response they encountered from Pakistan was not merely robust; it was, from my vantage point, strategically definitive. The old certainties that once governed deterrence in this region have been, quite frankly, shattered.

I recall the initial Indian offensive, launched under the cover of darkness. Their SEAD/DEAD operations, aimed at crippling our defences, proved utterly futile; not a single strategic or air defence site within Pakistan was touched.

Instead, what followed was a Pakistani counter-operation that was both swift and impactful. The established facts speak for themselves: five Indian fighter aircraft neutralized, two of their brigade headquarters confirmed destroyed, and 54 of their soldiers killed.

The shockwaves from these first day events were palpable, evidenced by a clear reluctance from their side to commit manned aircraft into our airspace again, leading them to predominantly send UAVs.

But even this change in tactics brought them no solace, as a subsequent second operation of theirs was also comprehensively blunted by our preparedness. And then, in what I can only describe as a stunning testament to our capabilities, on May 8, 2024, one of their key S-400 missile batteries – a system they paraded as the jewel of their air defence – was targeted and destroyed by us.

This precision strike, using our suicidal drones and stand-off munitions, sent an unambiguous message: no Indian asset is untouchable.

The types of aircraft involved and their fates further underscore this. I note with particular interest the successful interception and downing of Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions – a feat no other nation had achieved in combat.

Then there’s the matter of their Rafale jets; it’s no longer a matter of speculation but established fact that these were downed. Confirmation, including a French official’s admission (later reportedly scrubbed under pressure), indicates at least one, and our evidence suggests up to three.

I’ve seen the ripple effects of this across the global defence market, with increased investor confidence in Chinese defence technology and a significant re-evaluation of established Western platforms. Data from Martin Baker, the ejection seat manufacturers, registering four ejections in that timeframe – three confirmed from those Rafales – only solidifies what we already knew.

What I witnessed next from the Indian side was telling: frantic efforts to conceal the wreckage and the bodies of their fallen pilots, desperate measures to manage domestic perception. This, compounded by that evident reluctance amongst their pilots to fly further sorties, fearing our superior air defences and pilot skill, forced their hand towards greater UAV reliance – a strategy that, as mentioned, also failed.

The drone warfare aspect is particularly illuminating of our advanced capabilities. India’s deployment of sophisticated drones, with their stealth characteristics, represented a significant investment. Yet, our air defence forces neutralized an initial 25 of these platforms on that first day, a figure that rose to a total of 29 by May 8th due to separate downing events, using both hard and soft kill methods.

This, to me, is a landmark achievement in modern air defence, a clear display of our technological and operational proficiency. Indian Army personnel simply appeared unable to effectively engage, hampered by our constant preparedness.

Beyond the kinetic, what I found deeply troubling was the conduct within the information domain by sections of the Indian media. Their celebration of the killing of innocent civilians on our side, including women and children, is reprehensible and a grave departure from any ethical norm.

I cannot help but contrast this with, say, Israeli media conduct during Gaza hostilities, where such overt celebration of child casualties was not a mainstream feature. This raises serious questions about India’s adherence to the laws of armed conflict and, in my opinion, constitutes war crimes that the international community cannot ignore.

The cumulative effect of these events demonstrates, unequivocally in my view, a significant tactical and strategic defeat for the Indian military. Our potent retaliation, the downing of their advanced assets including the S-400, and the consistent neutralization of their drone threat, all point to Pakistan’s robust defensive capability and, indeed, our military superiority in this specific engagement.

Looking ahead, the “Way Forward” as articulated by us in Pakistan is one of confident deterrence. The assertion that Pakistan has “beaten Indian aggression hands down” and reserves the right to “respond at the time and place of its own choosing” comes from a position of proven strength. While we may not seek immediate further escalation, we are, and I am confident in this, unequivocally prepared to meet any future provocations with decisive force.

The international community must take immediate heed. The air, as I sense it, remains thick with apprehension, a direct result of India’s choices. Their conduct, especially the targeting of innocents and their attempts at secrecy, demands a unified global condemnation. To ignore this is to invite further disaster.

Any continued aggression or miscalculation by India will, I have no doubt, drag the region into a wider conflagration – a future Pakistan has clearly indicated it will confront to protect its sovereignty and its people.

While peace through dialogue is always the ideal, such efforts must be grounded in the hard truths of what has transpired and a resolute stand against India’s blatant violations of international law. The future stability of South Asia, as I see it, now rests precariously on India’s willingness to accept these new strategic realities and genuinely recommit to restraint.