US intelligence indicates Putin's war aims in Ukraine are unchanged

U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to capture all of Ukraine and reclaim parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire, six sources familiar with U.S. intelligence said, even as negotiators seek an end to the war that would leave Russia with far less territory.

The reports present a starkly different picture from that painted by U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukraine peace negotiators, who have said Putin wants to end the conflict. The most recent of the reports dates from late September, according to one of the sources.

The intelligence also contradicts the Russian leader’s denials that he is a threat to Europe.

The U.S. findings have been consistent since Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022. They largely align with the views of European leaders and spy agencies that he covets all of Ukraine and territories of former Soviet bloc states, including members of the NATO alliance, according to the sources.

“The intelligence has always been that Putin wants more,” Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, said in a Reuters interview. “The Europeans are convinced of it. The Poles are absolutely convinced of it. The Baltics think they’re first.”

Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including the bulk of Luhansk and Donetsk, the provinces that comprise the industrial heartland of the Donbas, parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces and Crimea, the strategic Black Sea peninsula.

Putin claims Crimea and all four provinces as belonging to Russia. Trump is pressuring Kyiv to withdraw its forces from the small part of Donetsk they control as part of a proposed peace deal, according to two sources familiar with the matter, a demand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and most Ukrainians reject.

“The president’s team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the war” and Trump has stated that a peace deal “is closer than ever before,” said a White House official without addressing the intelligence reports.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA and the Russian embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

PROGRESS ON SECURITY GUARANTEES

Trump’s negotiators – his son-in-law Jared Kushner and billionaire real estate developer Steve Witkoff – have for weeks been negotiating the 20-point peace plan with Ukrainian, Russian and European officials.

While U.S. officials say they have made progress, major differences remain on the issues of territory.

Kushner and Witkoff were meeting on Friday with Ukrainian negotiators in Miami and were to hold talks with Russian representatives this weekend, said a White House official.

U.S., Ukrainian and European negotiators reached a broad consensus on Monday in talks in Berlin on what four European diplomats and the two sources familiar with the matter said are robust U.S.-backed guarantees of Ukraine’s security against future Russian aggression.

One source and a diplomat said that those guarantees hinge on Zelenskiy agreeing to cede territory to Russia. But other diplomats said that was not the case and alternatives were still being examined as Zelenskiy has ruled out ceding territory.

The diplomats said the guarantees, which would take effect after the signing of a peace agreement, call for the deployment of a mostly European security force in neighboring countries and in Ukraine away from the front lines to aid in repulsing any future Russian attack.

Ukraine’s military would be capped at 800,000, said the source. But several diplomats said Russia seeks a lower cap to which the Americans are open.

The U.S. would provide intelligence and other support, and the package would be ratified by the U.S. Senate, they said. According to two sources familiar with the talks, Washington’s plan would also include U.S.-backed air patrols over Ukraine.

Zelenskiy on Thursday appeared cautious on the proposals, saying “There’s a question I still can’t get an answer to: What will these security guarantees actually do?”

And it is deeply uncertain whether Putin will agree to such guarantees as he has repeatedly rejected the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine.

RUSSIA STILL PUSHING TERRITORIAL DEMANDS

Putin on Friday offered no compromises, although he told an annual news conference that he was ready to discuss peace.

He said his terms would have to be met as his forces have advanced 6,000 square km (2,300 square miles) this year.

It is unclear how U.S. officials have responded to Putin’s demands. Witkoff has previously suggested that Russia has a right to claim the four provinces and Crimea.

Some Trump administration officials have acknowledged that Putin may be unwilling to settle for less than his initial goal of conquering Ukraine.

“I don’t know if Putin wants to do a deal or Putin wants to take the whole country. These are things that he has said openly,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday at a press conference.

“We know what they wanted to achieve initially when the war began. They haven’t achieved those objectives.”